Real Estate Information

June 23, 2020

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

         A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Unique Brand of Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.  

…IN COLORADO SPRINGS, JUNE 2016…

 

AND SO BEGINS THE “REAL” TALE OF JUST ONE OF MY CLIENTS

Yes, I wanted to tell you a story, just one of many, that illustrates the pleasure I get to see time and again when folks decide to purchase residential real estate, be it for personal use or investment purposes.

In June 2016 I sold a home to a client for $237,000, a price practically unheard of in today’s market.  This month, four years later, I listed and sold that same property for my client for $323,000.

What does that mean in real dollars?  Appreciation-wise, the home went up $86,000 during those four years—a 36.3% appreciation.  The annual gain is equal to 9%.

But it gets better.

Consider the rate of return from the original cash down payment on the purchase price of $237,000.  My client put down $75,000 cash and had approximately $5000 in closing costs for a total cash investment of $80,000.

The cost of the recent sale to my client was approximately 6.5% or $21,000.  The approximate cash in pocket to my client was $59,000.

But look closer and this is what you’ll discover…

The out of pocket cost of $80,000 divided by the net receipt at closing of $59,000 = 73.75% over a 4-year period!  

And 73.75% divided by 4 years = an 18.4% annual rate of return (plus annual tax deductions of interest and property taxes).

These figures do not account for the current loan balance so the actual rate of return will be even higher.

The Moral of the Story?

You probably figured it out by now.  Home ownership, either for personal use or investment purposes, can provide one of the best investments you’ll ever make.  The current low interest rates increase your buying power and present an appealing investment choice.

If you’ve been considering a move…now is a great time.  If you’re looking…or even thinking of looking…or wanting a new place for a possible future quarantine, don’t delay. I’m ready, willing and more than able to help you get one step closer to making your residential real estate dream come true.

Just give me a call at 593.1000 or email me at Harry@HarrySalzman.com.

After all, my knowledge and implementation of your wants, needs and budget equal a great rate of return to life for you and your family.

 

MORTGAGE RATES DROP TO ANOTHER ALL-TIME LOW

Realtor Magazine, 6.19.20

Last week the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage set another new record as rates averaged 3.13%, the lowest average rate in Freddie Mac’s records which date back to 1971.  The previous low of 3.15% was set just a couple of weeks prior.

According to Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, “While the rebound in the economy is uneven, one segment that is exhibiting strength is the housing market.  Purchase demand activity is up over twenty percent from a year ago, the highest since January 2009.  Mortgage rates have hit another record low due to declining inflationary pressures, putting many home buyers in the buying mood.”

Khater cautions that it will be difficult to sustain the momentum in demand as unsold inventory was at near record lows entering the pandemic and has dropped even lower since.  

I’m finding that more folks are putting their homes on the market, but they are being bought as quickly as they become available so that the number of existing homes for sale doesn’t get a chance to increase much.

That said, there are still homes available in most price ranges and in most neighborhoods.  Again, if you’re thinking of buying to trade up or move to a new neighborhood, don’t delay.  Give me a call and let’s get the ball rolling.  

As you will read in the next article…it’s not as easy as it once was.  However, when you’ve got me and my 47 plus years of experience in the local residential real estate arena, you’re already one step ahead of the rest.

 

AND THAT BRINGS US TO BIDDING WARS…

Housing Wire, 6.17.20 & Realtor Magazine 6.19.20

The housing shortage that has increased even more since the pandemic began in March is demonstrating that strong demand is creating steeper competition.

A recent study from Clever real estate showed that 42% of buyers who purchased a home between January and May were in a bidding war and the brokerage Redfin reported last week that half of its agents’ offers faced competition in May, up from 44% in April.  

While this is quickly becoming a national thing, I’ve been writing about the bidding wars that we in Colorado Springs have been facing for quite some time now.  I’ve recently seen homes sell in an hour or less, with more than 13 offers!  I expect those bidding wars to be around until there are more available homes for sale.  For buyers locally, it’s becoming the “new normal”.

This chart illustrates the Redfin scenario:

The study from Clever showed some statistics deriving from the pandemic in terms of residential real estate and I thought you might find them interesting.

 

• 59.29% of homeowners who purchased their home before the World Health Organization declared the pandemic said that someone who typically contributes to housing costs lost their job during the pandemic.

 

• Those who purchased their home since March (50.48% of those surveyed) were less likely to have lost a job, while stimulus check payments contributed to down payments for 21.1% of homebuyers.

 

• 84% of homebuyers who purchased their home before April 28 were able to pay their mortgage in full.  Of recent homebuyers, 55% said they’re paying their mortgage in full, but only 45% are able to pay if a financial contributor lost a job.

 

• 53.87% of those who said they were paying their mortgage in full said they were somewhat concerned and 25.14% said they were very concerned about being able to pay their mortgage in the coming months due to COVID-19 hardships.  This might change a little since the FHA and FHFA both announced they would be extending eviction moratoriums.

 

• Additionally, 36.24% of homeowners said they are worried that the pandemic might affect their home value.

 

The pandemic has caused a lot of stress and upended just about everything this year and here in Colorado Springs we’ve seen some of the same.  However, I’ve also witnessed a number of positive situations in the last several weeks.

Calls from those looking to move here for either professional or personal reasons are increasing.  A number of folks in larger cities are finding that the stress of the pandemic there made them realize that relocating to a “smaller” more spread out city could be healthier in the long run.  

Several companies have referred clients to me for help in relocation since finding homes is a big step in getting employees acclimated to a new work/life balance situation.  So personally, I don’t see home values locally going down.  

I do see a slowdown in annual growth since it would be almost unimaginable what the price of homes could be if their value kept increasing at the rate of the past several years.  A more realistic annual increase would be good all around, most especially for first-time home buyers.  Fortunately, the low interest rates are an advantage to those folks, and also for those who are looking for more home for the money.  The extra square footage and amenities or larger property is certainly costing less at present.

And so, once more with emphasis…if a new home is in your future…the time to begin the search is NOW.  

            

HARRY’S THOUGHT OF THE DAY:

 

June 5, 2020

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.

 

AS THINGS RETURN TO A “NEW NORMAL” …IT’S FULL STEAM AHEAD FOR HOUSING

With the country is opening up in stages, the Colorado Springs area is doing the same.  When it comes to residential real estate, we are as busy as ever while also taking precautions to keep our clients and ourselves healthy and safe.  Masks, hand sanitizers and more are all part of our everyday routine now and more than likely will be for the foreseeable future.  I’m finding that folks are more than ready to resume buying and selling homes are keeping them safe while doing so is all part of my job.

As I mentioned in the last eNewsletter, real estate is not going to be affected during this sudden economic downtown as it was in the mid 2000’s with the mortgage loan crisis of that time.  Today the mortgage market is healthy, and homes are not only retaining their value, but appreciating monthly in our neck of the woods.  The biggest hurdle is continuing to be the lack of available homes for sale.  That wasn’t helped during the shutdown because we obviously we were not able to list homes at that time and those wanting to sell and trade up have had to wait.  

I’ve been busy helping clients prepare their present homes in order to get them on the market as quickly as possible so they can begin the search for new properties in earnest.  We lost several months of the traditional spring buying and selling season and we need to make up for lost time—especially for those who need to move prior to the start of a new school year or new employment.

Being quarantined at home for several months presented people with a greater appreciation of what they have now or might want in looking for a new home.  Greater room for privacy, home offices, bigger kitchens and yards and other requirements are what I hear from clients when they are seeking a new home.  Oftentimes we don’t have the downtime to really see what we might want or need in a quarantined type of situation.  I believe these new wants and needs will help drive folks in home buying both now and in the future.  After all, our homes are meant to be our “safe haven” and why not make them as comfortable and functional as we possibly can?  

And that’s where I come in.  With more than 47 years in the local residential real estate arena, I’ve seen many cycles and know how to navigate through them successfully.  On a personal level I’ve also seen what I know to be essential in making a house a home and can translate that to help my clients.

If you have been wanting to begin the process of making your residential dreams come true, now is a great time to get it going.  All it takes is a phone call to me at 593.1000 or an email to Harry@HarrySalzman.com and I can put my extensive knowledge, experience and special brand of customer service to work for you, your family members and co-workers.  

I look forward to talking with you and seeing you soon.  

 

And now for statistics…

You will see that, while home sales prices did not increase as much as in the recent past, they still managed to do quite well for a time when it was almost impossible to visit available homes.  With the number of folks ready to buy, I would expect to see these numbers, along with the number of sales, to increase over the next few months. 

As might be expected, there were fewer new listings again last month, but considerably more than in April.  Now that we can visit homes to photograph them and talk with owners, you will undoubtedly see many more homes for sale before too long.

 

MAY 2020 

Statistics provided by the Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp., or it’s PPMLS

Here are some highlights from the May 2020 PPAR report.  Remember that the new format of this report no longer provides monthly statistics for each individual neighborhood.  However, if you are interested in what’s happening in your neighborhood, I can provide you with this information through other means.

In El Paso County, the average days on the market for single family/patio homes was 17.  For condo/townhomes it was also 17.  

The sales price/list price for single family/patio homes was 100.5% and for condo/townhomes was 99.9%.  

Please click here to view the detailed 9-page report, including charts.  If you have any questions about the report or to find out how it relates to your individual situation, just give me a call.

In comparing May 2020 to May 2019 for All Homes in PPAR:                       

                        Single Family/Patio Homes:

·       New Listings were 1,947, Down 7.9%

·       Number of Sales were 1,132, Down 27.6%

·       Average Sales Price was $393,517, Up 5.7%

·       Median Sales Price was $350,000, Up 6.3%

·       Total Active Listings are 1,546, Down 16.4%

·       Months Supply is 1.4, Up 0.6%

 

Condo/Townhomes:

·       New Listings were 253, Down 6.6% 

·       Number of Sales were 150, Down 21.1%

·       Average Sales Price was $256,716, Up 4.2%

·       Median Sales Price was $250,700, Up 7.3%

·       Total Active Listings are 173, Up 4.8%

·       Months Supply is 1.2, Down 0.2%

 

And a look at more statistics…

MAY 2020  LOCAL MARKET UPDATE  AND  MONTHLY INDICATORS  ILLUSTRATE OUR LOCAL TRENDS IN DETAIL

Colorado Association of REALTORS^{® ,} Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp, or it’s PPMLS

Providing greater detail than the above report, this contains information on both El Paso and Teller counties for Residential real estate. 

It is broken down by geographical areas and you can look to see how your neighborhood is doing in terms of sales, prices, and more.  

The “Activity Snapshot” for all residential properties in El Paso and Teller counties shows the Year to Date one-year change:

• Sold Listings for All Properties were Down 27.1%
• Median Sales Price for All Properties was Up 7.0%
• Active Listings on All Properties were Down 28.1%

You can click here to read the 16-page Monthly Indicators or click here to get specific information on the geographical area of your choice from the 18-page Local Market Update. I recommend that you check out your own area or one that you are considering, to get a good idea of the local pulse. As an example, here is a detailed report on the Colorado Springs area:

​

 

GET READY FOR A FAST-EVOLVING housing market

National Association of Realtors, 6.1.20

June is “Homeownership Month” and time for all would-be sellers to get their properties ready for the market.  New research indicates that despite the ongoing risks of the pandemic, 65% of consumers are ready to attend an open house or take a home tour in person!

According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of NAR, home sales are bouncing back from their bottom during the COVID-19 pandemic and pent-up housing demand during the state shutdowns is about to be unleashed as the restrictions to daily live are lifted or relaxed.

Looking ahead, the market is ripe for robust activity.  Mortgage applications are defying economists’ expectations, rising 54% since April. Mortgage rates for 30-year loans have broken through record lows three times in as many months which makes borrowing costs favorable for prospective buyers who are looking to get off the fence and purchase.  With home prices continuing to rise, every day you put off beginning your search can cost you money in terms of monthly payments.  

 

HOME PRICES:  IT’S ALL ABOUT SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Keeping Current Matters, 6.2.20

One of the major drivers of higher home prices is the lack of available listings.  As we make our way through June and into the second half of the year, we still face an undersupply of homes on the market.  This, of course, is going to vary by location and price point, but as I just mentioned, Colorado Springs is most definitely suffering from a lack of available homes for sale in most price ranges.

Historically, a six months’ supply is considered a balanced market.  Anything over is a buyer’s market, meaning that prices will depreciate.  Anything below 6 months is a seller’s market where prices appreciate.  Colorado Springs currently has a 1.4-month supply for single-family/patio homes and a 1.2-month supply for condo/townhomes.  As you can see from the chart below, we are considerably below the national average of available homes for sale.

 

According to Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Home Builders Association, “As the economy begins a recovery later in 2020, we expect housing to play a leading role.  Housing enters this recession underbuilt, not overbuilt.  Estimates vary, but based on demographics and current vacancy rates, the U.S. may have a housing deficit of up to one million units”.

Given the undersupply, there is upward pressure on prices, and this is certainly apparent in local housing prices.  This is what causes the bidding wars we’ve seen of late.  As we enter the summer months and work through the challenges associated with the current health crisis, many are wondering what impact the economic slowdown will have on home prices.  Looking at the “big picture”, supply and demand gives us the clearest idea of what’s to come.  

A recent MarketWatch article stated, “As buyers return to the market as the country rebounds from the pandemic, a limited inventory of homes for sale could fuel bidding wars and push prices higher.”

Additionally, experts forecasting home prices have updated their projections given the impact of the pandemic.  The major institutions expect home prices to appreciate through 2022.  The chart below, updated this week, notes these forecasts.  As 2020 progresses, we may see these projections revised in a continued upward trend, given the lack of homes on the market which could drive home prices even higher.

 

Bottom Line:

While many may think that home prices will depreciate due to the economic slowdown from the coronavirus, experts disagree.  As we approach the second half of the year, we may actually see home prices rise even higher given the lack of homes for sale.

If you were considering a wait before selling to trade up or to move to a new neighborhood, you might want to rethink that and give me a call sooner than later.

 

ECONOMISTS FORECAST RECOVERY TO BEGIN IN THE SECOND HALF OF YEAR

Keeping Current Matters, 5.28.20

The question on the minds of many right now has to do with the financial outlook of the country and when it will begin to recover.

While no one knows exactly how a rebound will play out, expert economists across the country are becoming more aligned on when it will begin. 

According to the latest Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey which polls more than 60 economists on a monthly basis, 83% believe a recovery will begin in the second half of 2020 as shown in the chart below:

 

In addition, five of the major financial institutions are also forecasting positive GDP in the second half of 2020.  As of today, four of the five expect a recovery to begin in the third quarter of the year, and all five agree a recovery should start by the fourth quarter:

 

Bottom Line:

With agreement among these leading experts, it’s time to start planning your own moves when it comes to residential real estate.  The historically low interest rates aren’t going to be here forever and if a move is in your future…. there’s no reason for your future to not start now.

 

UCCS ECONOMIC FORUM UPDATE

UCCS Economic Forum, College of Business, updated 5.28.20

I just received the UCCS Economic Forum’s reports on both the national and local economies and wanted to share it with you, as always.  You can click here to see the charts and if you have any questions, please give me a call.

May 22, 2020

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

      A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Unique Brand of Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.  

AS WE EASE INTO A “NEW NORMAL”, EVEN THE CORONAVIRUS CAN’T KEEP COLORADO SPRINGS RESIDENTIAL real estate DOWN!

We are discovering lots of new ways to do old things and it’s taking some getting used to.  Residential real estate in Colorado Springs, however, is as strong as ever despite Realtors not being able to show homes during the national and state-wide shutdown.

For the third month in a row, Colorado Springs was ranked the hottest market in the nation, according to a recent realtor.com report.  This is based on where buyers are clicking on the most home listings on realtor.com and where homes are selling the fastest, with the fewest days on the market

Our local housing market “has something to offer for buyers of all different ages and income groups,” says Javier Vivas, director of economic research for realtor.com.  Homes in Colorado Springs received about twice as many views as the average properties across the country and were sold in a median 32 days, about twice as fast as the rest of the nation.

There are a number of reasons for the continuing interest in local residential real estate. Among them is the fact that companies such as Amazon (who is building the largest distribution center within a six-state area at the Colorado Springs Airport complex) and numerous others are relocating here.  Additionally, the decision of the Department of Defense to make our city home to the newly formed Space Force for at least the next six years, if not permanently, is attracting buyers who will soon be employed in this area.  

Record low interest rates continue to be a factor in driving housing demand and will continue to do so as state economies gradually reopen, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.  “Still more listings, and increased home construction will be needed to tame price growth,” he added.

The fact that COVID-19 hit larger, more densely populated cities has not been lost on many folks who are wanting to move to cities like ours.  When you add that to our more normal work-life balance, you can’t do a whole lot better than our “Rocky Mountain High”.  

I may be a bit prejudiced since I’ve been involved in local residential real estate for more than 47 years. Most of you know how devoted I am to Colorado Springs, but obviously many others are making the decision to relocate here, and I look forward to welcoming them and of course, to selling them homes!

With a loosening of restrictions, I am busy working with those who have been waiting to list their present home and trade up, and others who are looking for first time purchases and investment properties.  For some of those with stellar credit, there is the possibility of a 2.5% 30-year mortgage rate—something practically unheard of.  For others, the rates are still historically low and look to remain that way for at least the immediate future.  We’re not likely to see these types of rates again, barring another pandemic, so now is the time to make a move if you are wanting and able.

I’m also finding that a plus side of this “sheltering at home” has given most of us a greater appreciation of our present homes or presented us with the ideas of what we might want in our next home.  In either case, our homes have protected us and our families and we cannot place any price on that.

If you’ve been considering a move…now is a great time.  Just give me a call at 593.1000 or email me at Harry@HarrySalzman.com and let’s see how we can work together to reach your residential real estate goals.

After all, my knowledge and implementation of your wants, needs and budget equal a great rate of return to life for you and your family.

 

HOMEOWNER “WISH LIST” FOR 2020

Keeping Current Matters, 5.15.20

In a recent study by realtor.com, homeowners noted some of the main things they would change about their homes to make them more livable.  Not surprisingly, after time spent sheltering at home, more space, an updated kitchen and a home gym rose to the top of the list. 

 

If these are some items on your personal “wish list” just give me a holler and let’s see how we can make them a reality for you and your family.

 

U.S. HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE RISES TO HIGHEST POINT IN 8 YEARS

Keeping Current Matters, 5.4.20

Following the recent stay at home orders from state and local governments, a whole new way of life has put our daily lives on pause.  As I just mentioned, many of us have found a sense of comfort by slowing down and spending time at home, highlighting the feeling of security that comes with having a much-needed “safe place” for our families to live.

The latest results of the Housing Vacancy Survey by the U.S. Census Bureau show how Americans place immense value in homeownership, and it is continuing to grow in the USA.  The results indicate that the homeownership rate increased to 65.3% for the first quarter of 2020, a number that has been rising since 2016 and is the highest we’ve seen in eight years.  

The year-over-year growth increased in all generational groups, most especially due to the low mortgage interest rates and strong new and existing home sales in the first two months prior to the COVID-19 pandemic hitting the economy.

The charts below depict the survey results:

 

And once again…if you’re looking…or even thinking of looking…give me a call.  I’m ready, willing and more than able to help you get one step closer to making your residential real estate dream come true.

            

COLORADO SPRINGS MEDIAN SALES PRICE IS DOUBLE THAT OF THE U.S.A.

National Association of Realtors, Quarter 1, 2020

In the newly released NAR survey of “Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes for Metropolitan Areas” for the first quarter 2020, Colorado Springs showed an increase year-over-year of 14.4%—twice that of the national average of 7.7%!  

And, surprisingly, the median sales price in March 2020, when the pandemic was ramping up rapidly in the U.S., median sales prices nationally reflected an increase of 8% year over year!  Strong demand and low supply are certainly driving forces, but this increase is certainly indicative of folks wanting to buy homes—especially with the all-time-low interest rates helping to offset the rising prices.  

Colorado Springs was one of forty-six metro areas that saw double-digit price increases during the first quarter and was listed as #27 overall.  

To see the listings of all 181 metro areas in numerical order, please click here.  To view them in alphabetical order, please click here.  And, as always, if you have any questions, just give me a call.

 

May 6, 2020

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.

HAPPIER & HEALTHIER DAYS ON THE HORIZON…

It’s been a long couple of months and sheltering in place has not been easy on many of us.  However, with the slow reopening of the country along with the arrival of wonderful spring weather, we are likely to see everyone’s mood picking up once again. 

Residential real estate, while certainly as a busy as it would have been during this prime spring buying season, is quickly picking up steam and I expect it will be moving ahead full steam locally in the very near future.  Last Thursday was the first full day that Realtors were allowed to show houses in Colorado, while social distancing of course.

Several of my clients wanted to visit available homes and I was surprised to find that there were 15 scheduled showings for one of the homes that was listed at $475,000.  This tells me that folks have been waiting for the go-ahead and are now ready, willing and able to get on with the business of home buying and selling.

I had the opportunity to virtually attend a zoom meeting with Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors last week and he was very optimistic, not only about the state of residential real estate, but about the economy in general.

Yun said he expects employment to be back to where it was quickly and that the third and fourth quarters of 2020 should be fiscally good.  He cites the fact that real estate is on solid ground and that there is only a minimal chance for a housing collapse.  Along with a sizeable housing demand, sellers not panicking, and the housing shortage in general, he says that buyers will be back as soon as possible, something we are already witnessing here in Colorado Springs.

With mortgage rates at an all-time low, now is a great time to sell and trade up or move to a new neighborhood.  Some of my clients have been reviewing listings that I’ve sent them via email and are ready to see these homes in person as quickly as possible.

There are still a number of restrictions in place when it comes to showing a home and social distancing is being strictly enforced, which is good for everyone.  However, while this might make things a little slower, it hasn’t prevented me from selling three homes last month and listing several others.  “Where there’s a will…there’s a way” it’s said and those of you who have worked with me know I can always find a way! 

If you have been wanting to begin the process of making your residential dreams come true, now is a great time to get it going.  All it takes is a phone call to me at 593.1000 or an email to Harry@HarrySalzman.com and I can put my extensive knowledge, experience and special brand of customer service to work for you, your family members and co-workers.  

I look forward to seeing you soon.  

 

And now for statistics…

You will see that, while home sales prices did not increase as much as in past months, they still managed to do quite well for a time when it was almost impossible to visit available homes.  With the number of folks ready to buy, I would expect that you will see these numbers to increase over the next few months.  

As might be expected, there were far fewer new listings last month. Now that we can visit homes to photograph them and talk with owners, you will undoubtedly see more homes for sale before too long.

 

APRIL 2020 

Statistics provided by the Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp., or it’s PPMLS

Here are some highlights from the April 2020 PPAR report.  Remember that the new format of this report no longer provides monthly statistics for each individual neighborhood.  However, if you are interested in what’s happening in your neighborhood, I can provide you with this information through other means.

In El Paso County, the average days on the market for single family/patio homes was 17.  For condo/townhomes it was 14.  

The sales price/list price for single family/patio homes was a high 101.9% and for condo/townhomes was 100.7%.  

Please click here to view the detailed 9-page report, including charts.  If you have any questions about the report or to find out how it relates to your individual situation, just give me a call.

 

In comparing April 2020 to April 2019 for All Homes in PPAR:                       

                        Single Family/Patio Homes:

·       New Listings were 1,458, Down 24.2%

·       Number of Sales were 1,219. Down 7.7%

·       Average Sales Price was $395,724, Up 6.6%

·       Median Sales Price was $360,000, Up 9.8%

·       Total Active Listings are 1,589, Up 1.1%

·       Months Supply is 1.3, Down 0.1%

 

Condo/Townhomes:

·       New Listings were 195, Down 6.3% 

·       Number of Sales were 173, Down 9.4%

·       Average Sales Price was $268,793, Up 10.4%

·       Median Sales Price was $254,900, Up 10.8%

·       Total Active Listings are 200, Up 83.5%

·       Months Supply is 1.2, Up 8.9%

 

And a look at more statistics…

APRIL 2020  LOCAL MARKET UPDATE  AND  MONTHLY INDICATORS  ILLUSTRATE OUR LOCAL TRENDS IN DETAIL

Colorado Association of REALTORS^{® ,} Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp, or it’s PPMLS

Providing greater detail than the above report, this contains information on both El Paso and Teller counties for Residential real estate. 

It is broken down by geographical areas and you can look to see how your neighborhood is doing in terms of sales, prices, and more.  

The “Activity Snapshot” for all residential properties in El Paso and Teller counties shows the Year to Date one-year change:

• Sold Listings for All Properties were Down 9.5%
• Median Sales Price for All Properties was Up 9.3%
• Active Listings on All Properties were Down 13.2%

You can click here to read the 16-page Monthly Indicators or click here to get specific information on the geographical area of your choice from the 18-page Local Market Update. I recommend that you check out your own area or one that you are considering, to get a good idea of the local pulse. As an example, here is a detailed report on the Colorado Springs area:

 

WHY THE STOCK MARKET CORRECTION PROBABLY WON’T IMPACT HOME VALUES

Keeping current matters, 3.24.2020

I’ve been recently asked how the stock market correction in the last month might affect home values and the good news is….it isn’t likely to affect them at all.

With the housing crash of 2006-2008 still in the minds of many, folks have tended to worry that the recent stock market tumble is a sign that home values are likely to follow.  However, what’s taking place today is nothing like what happened the last time.  The S & P 500 did fall by over fifty percent from October 2007 to March 2009, and home values did depreciate in 2007, 2008 and 2009—but that was because the economic slowdown was mainly caused by a collapsing real estate market and a meltdown in the mortgage market.

This time, the stock market correction is being caused by an outside event (COVID-19) with no connection to the housing industry.  Many experts are saying the current situation is much more reminiscent of the challenges we had when the dot.com crash was immediately followed by 9/11.  

One economist said, “What 9/11 has in common with what is happening today is that this shock has also generated feat, angst and anxiety among the general public.  People avoided crowds then as they believed another terrorist attack was coming and are acting the same today to avoid getting sick.  The same parts of the economy are under pressure—airlines, leisure, hospitality, restaurants, entertainment—consumer discretionary services in general.”

Since our current situation resembles the stock market correction in the early 2000’s, here’s a look at what happened to home values during that time:

 

Bottom Line:  If the current situation is more like the markets in the early 2000s versus the markets during the Great Recession, home values should be minimally affected, if at all.

 

MORTGAGE RATES AT NEW RECORD LOW

RealtorMag, 5.1.2020

Mortgage rates reached a new record low last week, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage falling to its lowest average since Freddie Mac began tracking such data in 1971.  

Here’s a snapshot of the rates:

 

What does this mean for you?  There’s never been a better time to sell and trade up because it’s likely with the current equity in your present home and the historically low interest rates your monthly payment won’t increase as much as you might have thought.  In any case, it’s worth finding out if this is something you are considering.  Just give me a call and let’s see how this might work for you.

 

HOMEOWNERSHIP REACHED AN 8-YEAR HIGH BEFORE COVID-19

RealtorMag, 4.29.2020

In the first quarter 2020, homeownership reached its highest level since Q3 2013.  The percentage of people who own a home in the U.S. increased to 65.3%, a 1.1% increase over the prior year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau in a report last week.

While the pandemic may impact that movement going forward, many economists aren’t so certain that it will have that effect across all age groups.

Homeownership rates were lowest for those under 35 years of age (37.3%) but did show increases during the first quarter—the strongest gain over the last 12 months.  Current unemployment trends due to COVID-19 will likely impact his age group.

However, as the pandemic subsides, homeownership interest isn’t likely to decrease.  While the pandemic is impacting not only the economy and real estate markets, consumer preferences are also shifting.

Americans have been living, working, teaching studying and exercising at home over the past few months and have a new-found appreciation for bigger homes with more outdoor space, updated kitchens, and access to amenities.  Those preferences hold across people of all ages and point to a favorable outlook for homeownership, according to George Ratiu, realtor.com’s senior economist.

 

UCCS ECONOMIC FORUM’S DASHBOARD AND PANDEMIC STATS

UCCS Economic Forum, Updated 4.29.2020

As always, I like to share the valuable information I get from the UCCS Economic Forum.  While it normally covers the Big Picture of the US economy as well as that of Colorado Springs, this time it also is covering statistics from the current pandemic. 

These reports are presented by Forum Director Tatiana Bailey and complement the many articles and interviews she has recently done for our community during these trying times.  

Please click here to view the 11-page report which I think you will find useful and interesting.  If you have any questions, please give me a call.

 

HARRY’S THOUGHTS/JOKES OF THE DAY:   

Realtor line of the day: 

“Can you picture yourself quarantined in this house?” 

 

And my new slogan:

April 22, 2020

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

         A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Unique Brand of Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.  

These are exactly my thoughts when it comes to this “invisible enemy” we’ve all been fighting.  As Colorado begins to open things up a bit next Monday, I wonder exactly how we begin to approach this new normal.  There are still so many unknowns and while I’m as ready as the next person for more normalcy, I’m hoping we move forward cautiously--one step at a time.

When it comes to residential real estate…it’s been confusing and inconvenient for some, to say the least.  As brokers, we have not been allowed to show homes up to this point.  What that has meant for some of my clients is that while they have had to close on homes they sold, they were unable to physically look at potential options for their next home.  I’ve actually sold three homes in the last two weeks—all while staying in my home office, and the closings I’ve attended took place in our individual cars.  To say this has been a wild ride would be putting it mildly.  

I miss the face-to-face interaction tremendously but have been thrilled to Zoom or FaceTime with clients, associates and others. I’ve enjoyed “seeing” everyone and spending time discussing real estate plans, attending virtual classes and simply catching up.  While things may be standing still in some ways, life still goes on, and I’ve enjoyed the interactions afforded through virtual means.

I’ve always emphasized the importance of looking at the economy and residential real estate through “local” eyes, and this is especially true at this point in time.  Colorado Springs was ranked the number one housing market in the country by Realtor.com in March.  While this likely won’t be the case for April, it’s indicative of the relative strength of our local economy heading into this pandemic and an indication that things will likely improve somewhat faster here than in other parts of the country.  In fact, I have a number of clients who are ready to view homes as soon as we are able, not to mention some who are relocating here and need housing as soon as possible.  

The spring buying season is here and those who have been considering a move are looking forward to listing their present home during this seller’s market.  Available listings, while not plentiful, will likely increase and mortgage rates are still relatively low. The dynamics are there, but now we wait for the signal to start showing homes again.  There are conflicting issues on the state and local levels as to what we as brokers are allowed to do in terms of showing homes and as soon as the rules are more concrete you will be the first to know.  In the meantime, any questions or concerns you may have—just give me a call at 593.1000 or email me at Harry@HarrySalzman.com and I’ll be happy to discuss them with you.

 

THE CARES ACT AND REGULATORY ACTIONS CONCERNING MORTGAGE AND PERSONAL FINANCE—PLUS COVID-10 FAQS

National Association of REALTORS

Congress has passed relief packages to respond to COVID-19 and bank regulators have also adopted many new policies in light of needs of COVID-19.  Please click here to read the provisions and actions that are designed to address home buying, homeowner/landlord, and personal finance issues.

If you have any questions, as always, just give me a holler.

 

COLORADO SPRINGS IS NUMBER ONE IN NATION EVEN AS NATIONAL HOME SALES DIP IN MARCH….AND HOME SALES ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH AHEAD

Realtor.com, 4.22.20

As I indicated earlier, it’s an interesting time for residential real estate.  Nationally, existing home sales dipped in March while locally we saw a better scenario.  However, despite the national numbers, they are not that far from what they were a year ago, and home prices continue to rise most everywhere, and especially here in Colorado Springs.

Here is a “Housing Snapshot” of existing home sales nationally in March 2020:

“Unfortunately, we knew homes sales would wane in March due to the coronavirus outbreak,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.  “More temporary interruptions to home sales should be expected in the next couple of months, though home prices will still likely rise.”

“Earlier in the year, we watched inventory gradually tick upward, but with the current quarantine recommendations in place, fewer sellers are listing homes, which will limit buyer choices,” Yun added. “Significantly more listings are needed, and more will come on to the the market once the economy steadily reopens.”

So, there you go…. home prices are holding steady and increasing…despite the pandemic.  This is good news for us all and a great starting point for both buyers and sellers once we are able to get back to some semblance of normalcy.

 

HOW POTENTIAL MORTGAGE BORROWERS CAN COPE WITH A VIRUS-STRUCK MARKET

MortgageProfessor.com, 4.18.20

The housing finance system has not faced a pandemic such as COVID-19 before and within a very short time, a significant segment of potential home buyers who need mortgages to make their purchases, or to refinance the one they have, have had their ability to repay severely eroded—some because they have contracted the coronavirus, but more due to losing their jobs or their business.  In response to the widespread deterioration in the ability-to-pay of prospective borrowers, credit standards have been markedly tightened—with the impact especially severe on these with the weakest credit credentials.

In an attempt to repair the process, the Federal Reserve has entered the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market with massive purchases.  While MBS prices ordinarily drive the entire market price structure, these purchases should have resulted in higher MBS prices and lower mortgage rates, but they haven’t. Of course, they might have prevented even higher rates.

The mortgage holiday, which allows existing mortgage borrowers who have lost their income as a result of the pandemic to defer their payments without penalty, has prevented a catastrophic explosion in default rates—for a while.  But borrowers will have to make larger payments in the future or extend the terms of their loans.

As I mentioned earlier, we need to look at all of this from a local perspective and while folks here have been affected by COVID-19 in various ways, we have been more fortunate than much of the country.

 

Here are some ways that potential borrowers can cope:

 

• Prospective Home Buyers Who Will Need Mortgages:  Those who have become sick, or lost their jobs or businesses, or had their credit score dropped significantly should put their purchase plans aside until their fortunes improve.  Those not directly affected by the pandemic should consider waiting a few months until the market has stabilized, and rates are back to where they were before the pandemic.  This applies to prospective refinancers.  

 

• Homeowners in Process of Refinancing:  If you have not already locked an advantageous rate, there is little likelihood that it will happen now.  Back out to wait for the turbulence to end.

If your rate has been locked advantageously, the lender can unlock it only if you lose your job or if you incur a new debt.  Lenders have become hyper-vigilant in checking employment status of borrowers with loans in process.

You are safe, however, against losing an advantageous refinance because your credit score has dropped.  Lenders cannot undo the credit score used to qualify you for 120 days.

 

• Home Buyers in Process with Purchase Agreements and Locked Mortgages:  Unless you lose your job or increase your debt, the rate lock will be honored, and the purchase will be executed.

If one or both of these conditions has been violated, the lock probably will be withdrawn, and the purchase will be cancelled.  Your best option in that case is having your deposit with the seller returned.  That will happen if your agreement of sale provides for the return of a deposit made by a prospective buyer whose failure to execute the transaction is due to a failure of the lender to deliver the promised loan.

 

Confusing?  You bet.  I’m guessing you might have some questions if any of the above scenarios apply to your individual situation, so please give me a call and we can discuss.

 

FEATURED LISTING:

Just sold my last three this week.  That gives me lots of time to devote to yours.  If you’re considering a move…please give me a call.

April 7, 2020

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.

 

A word that today takes on

a whole new meaning.

 

In these troubled times,

home can be so much more

than a physical space.

 

Home is our workplace,

our daycare, our school, our gym.

 

But above all things,

home is a shelter.

 

A place where we can retreat to, 

where we are protected, shielded,

secure from the outside world.

 

A place where we can be 

our realest selves.

 

And while these days it can

be difficult to feel confined,

remember what home is.

 

A sanctuary.  A haven.

A place where we will weather a storm that,

like many others, also shall pass.

 

#StayHome

 

This was published by realtor.com in The Wall Street Journal on Monday, March 30, 2020.  I thought you would enjoy it as much as I did.  Realtor.com is donating $100,000 to Feeding America to help people most in need during the current crisis.

These are most certainly trying times for us all, but I feel confident we will emerge from them stronger than ever—both as a nation and as a world.  There is certain to be a new normal, but hopefully one where we can appreciate what’s truly important in our lives and be thankful for what we have.

Most everyone endures some sort of struggle in life, be it medical, financial, or one of many other things, and self-isolation is certainly more difficult for some than others.  It is my hope when we are finally able to return to some semblance of our previous lives that we can all take the time to realize we were all in this—alone, together—and that these shared experiences will bring more kindness to the world.

 

And now for statistics…

You will note that March (as well as first Quarter 2020) was once again strong in local residential real estate and while I expect April’s stats to be quite different due to this current medical crisis, we can all be grateful for the gains we have made.  I believe when the economy is back up and running, it will be running even faster in Colorado Springs as so many companies and folks have plans to relocate here.  It will take a little time, but fortunately for us, our local economy and job and housing markets have been very strong, and I see no reason for this trend to not continue.

If you have any questions, thoughts, or just want to chat about anything, please email me at Harry@HarrySalzman.com or call me at 593.1000.  I’ve got lots of time on my hands and would love to hear from you—if nothing more than to let me know how you are.

 

MARCH 2020 

Statistics provided by the Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp., or it’s PPMLS

Here are some highlights from the March 2020 PPAR report.  Remember that the new format of this report no longer provides monthly statistics for each individual neighborhood.  However, if you are interested in what’s happening in your neighborhood, I can provide you with this information through other means.

In El Paso County, the average days on the market for single family/patio homes was 29.  For condo/townhomes it was 16.  

The sales price/list price for single family/patio homes was 100.5% and for condo/townhomes was 100.3%.  

Please click here to view the detailed 9-page report, including charts.  If you have any questions about the report or to find out how it relates to your individual situation, just give me a call.

 

In comparing March 2020 to March 2019 for All Homes in PPAR:                       

                        Single Family/Patio Homes:

·       New Listings were 1,820 Up 19.3%

·       Number of Sales were 1,270, Up 3.8%

·       Average Sales Price was $390,721, Up 11.3%

·       Median Sales Price was $352,400, Up 11.9%

·       Total Active Listings are 1,328, Down 9.1 %

·       Months Supply is 1.0, Down 2.4%

 

Condo/Townhomes:

·       New Listings were 249, Up 15.3% 

·       Number of Sales were 184, Up 8.9%

·       Average Sales Price was $261,252, Up 10.1%

·       Median Sales Price was $255,400, Up 16.1%

·       Total Active Listings are 152, Up 15.2%

·       Months Supply is 0.8, Up 1.7%

 

And a look at more statistics…

MARCH 2020  LOCAL MARKET UPDATE  AND  MONTHLY INDICATORS  ILLUSTRATE OUR LOCAL TRENDS IN DETAIL

Colorado Association of REALTORS^{® ,} Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp, or it’s PPMLS

Providing greater detail than the above report, this contains information on both El Paso and Teller counties for Residential real estate. 

It is broken down by geographical areas and you can look to see how your neighborhood is doing in terms of sales, prices, and more.  

The “Activity Snapshot” for all residential properties in El Paso and Teller counties shows the Year to Date one-year change:

• Sold Listings for All Properties were Up 3.4%
• Median Sales Price for All Properties were Up 12.2%
• Active Listings on All Properties were Down 22.8%

You can click here to read the 16-page Monthly Indicators or click here to get specific information on the geographical area of your choice from the 18-page Local Market Update. I recommend that you check out your own area or one that you are considering, to get a good idea of the local pulse. As an example, here is a detailed report on the Colorado Springs area:

 

THE STATE OF HOUSING:  GLOBAL INFLUENCE, TRENDS, CORONAVIRUS, AND OTHER CHALLENGES…AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS

RisMedia.com, 3.12.20

Residential real estate markets are a constant state of flux.  Nationally, there are continuous shifts between buyers’ and sellers’ markets, housing inventory, affordability and more.  Locally, the challenges and opportunities become even more diverse and nuanced.  Our recent sellers’ market has been the norm for quite some time due to the shortage of available homes for sale.

Here’s a brief look at today’s real estate market, both on a national and local level, from the perspective of several industry practitioners. 

 

• Global Events Impacting real estate.   The state of the economy and global occurrences can have a substantial influence on real estate, both nationally and locally.  Experts are currently monitoring the effects of the coronavirus impact on the economy, and therefore, real estate.

According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, a month ago he would have said the biggest hurdle is a general housing shortage, but that’s changed.  “The coronavirus is an unprecedented event, and even though we don’t know how everything will play out, it’s currently a big uncertainty that’s hitting the stock market.”

Yun says it could be good or bad.  For some people, the money they have been saving for a down payment may have evaporated, but for others, low rates may provide an exceptionally enticing opportunity.  

According to a recent NAR survey, nearly one in four home sellers changed how their home is viewed on the market due to the outbreak, including stopping open houses, requiring that prospective buyers wash or sterilize their hands, asking buyers to remove their shoes or wear footies, and more.

A recent statement from Yun stated:

“The coronavirus is leading to fewer homebuyers searching in the marketplace, as well as some listings being delayed.  In the latest flash survey, 11 percent of REALTORS indicated a reduction in buyer traffic and 7 percent are reporting lower seller traffic when asked directly about the coronavirus impact on the market.  Given that a home transaction is a major commitment, the uncertainties on how the economy will play out and the spread of the virus itself are barriers to home-buying and -selling.  The stock market crash is no doubt raising economic anxieties, while the coronavirus brings fear of contact with strangers.  At the same time, the dramatic fall in interest rates may induce some potential buyers to take advantage of better affordability conditions.  It is too early to assess the likely impact as to whether lower interest rates can overcome the economic and health anxieties.  But the survey is implying, in the short term at least, that home sales will be chopped by around 10 percent, compared to what would have been the case, due to the spread of coronavirus.”

 

• A Shortage of Housing Supply, Rising Home Rates.  On both a local and national scale, a shortage of housing supply is still the predominant challenge.

“There’s a lack of housing,” says Yun.  “Fast price appreciation and increasing rents are causing major housing affordability challenges for both renters and first-time buyers.”

 

• Determining What Policies Should Address.  On a national level, Yun says the reform of Fannie and Freddie will be important, and less stringent over-the-top legislation about building activity would help “so more homes and apartments can be built”.  In addition, Zone tax incentives in economically displaced areas “could be the impetus for more building activity in what was once considered a less desirable area, but now with tax incentives becomes more viable,” he added.

 

• Where Should Change Come From?  The question at the forefront of the housing policy discussion would be…”Is governmental influence more effective at the local, state or federal level?”

Several brokers nationally say it’s a tricky question.  One of those interviewed for this story feels that housing policy at the local level is the most effective, with it not linked to social policy, but possibly linked in the sense of lending rules and affordability in areas.  Locally, there is an understanding from a community aspect, a demographics aspect and a socioeconomic aspect.  

Others also feel that a local policy is the way to go, as long as it does not discriminate on any social policies and is based on economic factors.

Still others believe that any successful, long-term reform should be addressed on a local level by each individual city and town because “each town has its own individual wants and needs depending on the wants and needs of its individual citizens”.

There are a lot of questions still being raised due to the uncertainty of the economy and the coronavirus.  Personally, I believe that once we get the coronavirus under control medically and people are able to return to work, the housing market will come back quickly on a local level.  This will primarily be driven by the incentive of low interest rates and the local housing shortage.  When will this happen?  That I can’t tell you, but I’m hoping it’s sooner than we all expect.

If you have any questions concerning local real estate, just give me a call.  

 

HOW TO DISINFECT A HOME CORRECTLY

RealtorMagazine, 3.17.20

HouseLogic.com has reported that the best cleaners are either a bleach solution or a 70% alcohol solution.  Here is the bleach recipe:  5 tablespoons (1/3 cup) bleach per gallon of water, or 4 teaspoons per quart of water”.  And be sure to ventilate properly while disinfecting with bleach.  Also, bleach can expire, so be sure to check the bottle’s expiration date, and never mix bleach with anything other than water.

If you don’t have bleach, use 70% rubbing alcohol, which is already diluted.  Disinfecting wipes use an ammonium compound, which could allow viruses to become resistant over time.  “Disinfection isn’t instantaneous,” says Erica Marie Hartman, an environmental microbiologist at Northwestern University.  “For a bleach solution, you want to leave it on the surface for 10 minutes before wiping it off,” she added.

Clorex wipes include instructions advising treating a surface “using enough wipes for the treated surface to remain visibly wet for four minutes”.  Other disinfectants, including bleach, have their own instructions for proper use.  Be sure to check the bottle before using.

Also, disinfectants don’t provide lasting protections.  If a sick person touches the surface right after it is cleaned, new germs will be left there.  According to Morgan Brashear, the scientific communications manager at Procter & Gamble, “The reality is that bacteria are complex organisms, and the vast majority of people don’t understand the intricate mechanisms that power them, which leads to them underestimating just how easily they can be reintroduced and quickly multiply on an unprotected surface.”

And there is such a thing as “over-disinfecting”, too.  None of us know the best way to prevent germs from traveling person to person, however, if we all try to follow the rules of social distancing, wearing masks and gloves when going out in public, and staying at home whenever possible, hopefully we can prevent ourselves from either being exposed to or passing on the coronavirus, or in fact, any virus.

I look forward to seeing you once again in person.  Until then…please stay well.

March 19, 2020

 

*** HARRY’S SPECIAL EDITION ***

Thoughts from My Home Office While “Social Distancing”

 

I write this with a heavy heart and thoughts of you—my clients, friends and associates.  The world as we knew it last month is now gone.  Similar to what I’ve been saying about the buying and selling of residential real estate—there’s going to be a “new normal”.  And that’s not saying it’s good or bad—it just is what it is.  

There’s no sense retelling what’s happening in the world today—we all are getting more than enough new coverage of that.  However, I’d like to muse on the good things I’ve witnessed in the last couple of days after the initial “panic”. Folks in Colorado Springs are listening to President Trump, Governor Polis, and our own Mayor John Suthers and practicing the recommended “social distancing”.  

People are calling their families, and especially the older generation, to check on them and offer assistance.  They’re patronizing our local restaurants for take-out and delivery to help ease the financial losses those places are suffering.  In short, folks appear to be coming together to help each other survive, with political and various other differences becoming less important and with survival, both financial and physical, at the forefront. 

In short, I am witnessing this “invisible enemy” uniting Americans and most are rising to be the best they can be. None of us know how long it’s going to take, or indeed, where this is going to take us.  However, when we work together the outcome will surely be for the better.  As the author Gail Sheehy once said, “To be tested is good. The challenged life may be the best therapist.”  We most certainly are being tested today and I for one believe we will not only pass that test with flying colors but will become a more unified nation because of it.

When it comes to crisis management, the real estate industry has been tested time and again.  In 2008 it was the victim of subprime mortgages which curbed spending, saddled the nation with debt and set off widespread layoffs.  Deep cracks in the foundation of the national economy split the market wide open and years of fissuring economic weaknesses finally came undone.  

Today the foundational framework of our economy is on solid ground.  Household debt and unemployment were recently at their lowest points in half a century.  Home prices are at all time highs and mortgage rates are at historic lows.  Most homeowners who were underwater during the 2008 crisis are now seeing increased equity—and most especially here in the Colorado Springs area.  This has been steady and has created a market able to withstand the financial ramifications of COVID-19.  As I mentioned in the last eNewsletter, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, compared this 2020 downturn with the Great Recession by saying, “The real estate market will hold on much better.” 

There will be times in the future to talk more about real estate.  Today our focus must be on the global pandemic and keeping all Americans healthy, because without good health the rest just pales in comparison.  Check in on family, friends, neighbors and especially those who cannot fend for themselves.  If you’re able to get out for groceries for yourself, see if there is anyone who might need you to pick up some things for them, too.  

Remind the younger people that while this is most certainly inconvenient for us all, they need to do their part by social distancing and not spreading the virus to those who might not have their stamina or likely immunity.  And that immunity shouldn’t be taken for granted since data is showing that younger Americans are testing positive more frequently than some of the older generation.  It appears that this virus doesn’t seem to have age preference when it comes to infection—it’s just that it’s more severe in those with compromised immune systems.  We can all help prevent unintentionally infecting ourselves and others if we listen to what our leaders are asking us to do.

While I’m practicing social distancing, I want to let you know that I’m still available by email at Harry@HarrySalzman.com and by phone at 593.1000.  I’m here to answer any questions you may have or just to chat.  We all need that social connection and I’d be delighted to talk to you about whatever you’ve got on your mind.  They don’t call me “The real estate Therapist” for nothing.  I earned that title and am proud of it. 

Yes, we are in uncharted territory at the moment but as I wrote earlier, we will pass whatever test is being thrown at us and come back even stronger because of it.  Please stay safe and keep your friends and family safe and healthy.

March 4, 2020

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.

 

LOTS OF GOOD NEWS THAT WOULD BE EVEN BETTER IF WE HAD MORE HOMES FOR SALE!

It’s been a busy month for February and no surprise in some ways.  This is usually a slower time of year but with so few existing homes available for sale, I’ve got buyers who are looking at every listing that even comes close to what they want, need and can afford.  

Let’s start with the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) just released House Price Index for the 4^th Quarter 2019.  Colorado Springs was ranked number two of the “Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the USA. Our house price index increased 11.0% from 2018 Q4 to 2019 Q4.  And…it increased 4.2% from 2019 Q3 to 2019 Q4!

As I’ve been telling you, one of the reasons for such an increase is the lack of available homes for sale, which is creating even more of a seller’s market.  We are still seeing bidding wars and offers that come in above listing price as the norm these days.  And with more and more companies moving here and bringing with them relocated employees, it doesn’t appear that this will improve much until there are more homes for sale.  

This isn’t just a local problem.  With the spring buying season starting up, coupled with a strong labor market and a growing pool of millennials as would-be buyers, the competition all over the USA is going to be tough.  Some U.S. economists are predicting that home sales will be down—or flat—in 2020.  Considering that mortgage rates are still at historic lows, if there were more available homes, sales would be way up.  And despite the low rates, those home price increases are also starting to price first-time buyers out of the market.

Locally, Amazon is planning to hire 1000 folks for their enormous distribution center being built near the Colorado Springs Airport and Progressive Insurance just announced plans to hire 500. All of these folks are going to be looking for homes and adding to the housing shortage, as well as causing rental rates to remain high.  

Another interesting fact:  In late February, “The Report: State of Luxury 2020” by Coldwell Banker, which provides an in-depth look of emerging luxury markets and buyers, ranked Colorado Springs as one of the top 5 luxury markets to watch.  According to the report, the migration of new markets within the luxury sector are being driven by several factors including lifestyle preference, job opportunities, property value differentials, and a desire to reduce taxes.  Sales-list-to-price ratios, days on the market, median list price and inventory were also used in determining the top five.  Just another reason it’s tough to find a home here.

New homes are becoming more of an option than ever and the Colorado Springs area homebuilding is off to a great start in 2020.  The Regional Building Department issued 312 permits in February for the construction of single-family homes in El Paso County.  That’s nearly a 15% increase over the same period in 2019.  Those permits were the most issued for a February since 356 permits were issued in 2006.  And 2020 year to date, single-family building permits in El Paso County totaled 641—almost 49% higher than the 431 issued during the same period last year.

I’m finding a number of my clients are looking to new home construction and fortunately I have a good working relationship with a number of local builders.  That comes into play when my clients need help with site and home selection, and very importantly when it comes to finding the right lender for their budgetary requirements.  And…even more important—all of my advice and help comes at NO ADDITONAL COST to my client. 

Is new home construction is something you have considered?  If so, please give me a call at 593.1000 or email me at Harry@HarrySalzman.com and let me help you determine the right move for your individual wants, needs and budget.  You might be surprised to find out what your current home is worth and now is a great time to put that hard-earned equity to work for you. But don’t delay…the line to purchase either an existing or a new home is going to be a lot longer as the spring buying season gets in full swing.

If 2020 is your year to make a move, it’s not too early to meet with me to discuss your plans—new construction, looking to buy an existing home or investment property—the sooner you start the conversation, the sooner I can help you can fulfill your residential real estate dreams.

And now for statistics…

 

FEBRUARY 2020 

Statistics provided by the Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp., or it’s PPMLS

Here are some highlights from the February 2020 PPAR report.  Remember that the new format of this report no longer provides monthly statistics for each individual neighborhood.  However, if you are interested in what’s happening in your neighborhood, I can provide you with this information through other means.

In El Paso County, the average days on the market for single family/patio homes was 30.  For condo/townhomes it was 17.  

The sales price/list price for single family/patio homes was 99.8% and for condo/townhomes was 100.0%.  

Please click here to view the detailed 9-page report, including charts.  If you have any questions about the report or to find out how it relates to your individual situation, just give me a call.

In comparing February 2020 to February 2019 for All Homes in PPAR:                      

                        Single Family/Patio Homes:

·       New Listings were 1,254, Up 3.2%

·       Number of Sales were 985, Up 6.7%

·       Average Sales Price was $386,749, Up 10.3%

·       Median Sales Price was $341,000, Up 8.3%

·       Total Active Listings are 1,085, Down 28.5%

·       Months Supply is 1.1, Down 4.2%

 

Condo/Townhomes:

·       New Listings were 214, Up 31.3% 

·       Number of Sales were 146, Up 9.8%

·       Average Sales Price was $254,572, Up 9.6%

·       Median Sales Price was $237,000, Up 10.2%

·       Total Active Listings are 112, Down 20.0%

·       Months Supply is 0.8, Down 2.0%

And a look at more statistics…

 

FEBRUARY 2020  LOCAL MARKET UPDATE  AND  MONTHLY INDICATORS  ILLUSTRATE OUR LOCAL TRENDS IN DETAIL

Colorado Association of REALTORS^{® ,} Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp, or it’s PPMLS

Providing greater detail than the above report, this contains information on both El Paso and Teller counties for Residential real estate. 

It is broken down by geographical areas and you can look to see how your neighborhood is doing in terms of sales, prices, and more.  

The “Activity Snapshot” for all residential properties in El Paso and Teller counties shows the Year to Date one-year change:

• Sold Listings for All Properties were Up 4.5%

 

• Median Sales Price for All Properties were Up 10.3%

 

• Active Listings on All Properties were Down 33.5%

You can click here to read the 16-page Monthly Indicators or click here to get specific information on the geographical area of your choice from the 18-page Local Market Update. I recommend that you check out your own area or one that you are considering, to get a good idea of the local pulse. As an example, here is a detailed report on the Colorado Springs area:

 

 

“SENIOR real estate SPECIALIST” IS A NEW DESIGNATION FOR ME

I just successfully completed a certification course to become a “Senior real estate Specialist” from the National Association of Realtors, which doesn’t mean I’ve been in the business for a long time, but of course—47 years later—I have.  It means that I am now even more educated in assisting those aged 50 plus in identifying their needs and how to make the best use of the home equity they have accumulated.  

For most senior adults, a home represents their largest asset and accounts for most of their net worth.  Understanding the distinct real estate goals, concerns and needs of seniors is vital in helping those folks determine their next steps in the housing arena.  There are key differences in housing options, from age-restricted communities to age-in-place design to assisted living;  applications of the Housing for Older Persons Act, the ins and outs of reverse mortgages,; the use of pensions, 401k accounts, and IRAs in real estate planning, reverse mortgage lenders, clutter and staging specialists and more.

While my extensive residential real estate experience, along with my investment banking background, make me more of an expert than many, this course presented new tools that I can use in helping the senior market.  This is especially important when you consider that adults aged 50 and over represent more than 20% of the U.S. population. 

If you fit into that category and have started considering what’s next—I’m your guy.  I can assist in helping you determine the right move for you—and more importantly—if I don’t have the answers—I know where to get them.  I’m here when you’re ready and look forward to helping you.

 

DON’T LEAVE TAX BREAKS ON THE TABLE WHEN SELLING YOUR HOME

Realtor Mag, 2.24.20

This is a reminder to ask your financial and tax advisors about the tax deductions you’re eligible for in a home sale.  As long as the costs are directly tied to the sale of the home, they may qualify for tax breaks.  

While 2018’s new tax code—aka the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act—changed some rules for homeowners, rest assured that if you sold your home last year (or are planning to in the future), your tax deductions when you file with the IRS can still amount to a sizable savings.

These include:

• Selling Costs
• Home Improvement and Repairs
• Property Taxes
• Mortgage Interest
• Capital Gains Tax for Sellers

You may be entitled to some or all of these deductions, so please be sure to check with your financial and tax advisors to determine how it applies to your individual situation.

 

FEATURED LISTING:

YOURS, HERE?  IT MOST CERTAINLY WILL GET A LOT OF ATTENTION—NOT ONLY FROM ME, BUT ALSO FROM MY READERS AND ANYONE LOOKING TO BUY.

February 20, 2020

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

                          A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Unique Brand of Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.  

AHEAD OF THE CURVE…YUP…THAT’S ALWAYS MY GOAL…

As most of you know, several years ago I decided to add another designation under my name--“The real estate Therapist”.  I even went so far as to trademark it in the State of Colorado.  My reasoning was the realization that the service I provide my clients is 90% seasoned real estate professional and 10% “therapist”.  

The time I spend with clients prior to even beginning the home search gives me great insight into the family dynamics and helps me assist them in determining how best to make their wants and needs fit their budget and other requirements.  I often find that family members might have different wants and needs, yet obviously they need to come to a consensus prior to the housing search.  I take it all into consideration, help them reach a common goal, and do my best to manage the stress involved in the entire home buying and selling process. Thus, my role as “The real estate Therapist”.

Therefore, I was not entirely surprised when just this month there was an article on HousingWire titled “Some Homebuyers Value their real estate Agent as much as their Therapist” which went on to say that some homebuyers become best friends with their agents!  I’ve known this for as long as I can remember.  

The article went on to say that according to a new survey from Century 21, a majority of homebuyers and sellers say they value and confide in their real estate agents more than a therapist and know them better than their own neighbors.

After all, finding and having the “right” real estate professional by your side is so important in navigating through what for most is the biggest emotional and financial decision of their life.  It is my honor and privilege to have earned the trust and friendship of so many of my clients and their families, and it is not something I take for granted.

So…a big thanks to all of you for giving me that trust and for your friendship.  I look forward to working with you and your family members for many years to come.

 

Now on to some continued great news about Colorado Springs real estate…

 

COLORADO SPRINGS IS NUMBER ONE FOR HOME BUYERS IN RECENT NATIONAL SURVEY

National Association of Realtors, 2.19.20

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has created the profile of homebuyers for each metropolitan statistical area (MSA) and I wanted to share this information with you—especially since Colorado Springs is right at the top once again.

Each year, the American Community Survey releases the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) which include population and housing unit records with individual response information.  Focusing on homeowners who moved into their home within the last year, NAR was able to identify characteristics of the homebuyers and their homes at a local level.

In answer to the question of “Where are People Buying Homes?”— Colorado Springs was a resounding number one choice, followed by Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, Cape Coral -Fort Myers, FL, and Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ.  

Based on the NAR’s Home Buyers and Sellers Survey, nationally a typical homebuyer was 46 years old and earned nearly $92,000 in 2017.  Our local typical homebuyer that same year was 38 years old with an average income of $82,489.

 

THAT BEING SAID…

Our biggest hurdle at the moment is a shortage of available homes for sale.  Just like the rest of the USA, the supply shortage is creating problems for those looking to buy, most especially for the entry-level buyers.  

Low mortgage rates and a strong job market and economy isn’t enough to help the Millennial and Gen X buyers coming into the very competitive housing market this homebuying season, due in part to rising prices and fast-selling homes.

Compounding the problem locally is actually the fact that we are the number one place in the nation where people want to buy.  As most of you may know, Amazon just completed the purchase of over 69 acres near the Colorado Springs Airport where they are building a 4 million square foot distribution center.  They are looking to employ 1,000 people, many of whom will be looking for a place to call home.  With only 1171 homes (1039 single family, 26 condos, 76 townhomes and 30 patio homes) listed for sale today in all price ranges on the Pikes Peak area MLS, you do the math!  

You might be interested to know that one year after Amazon announced its HQ2 move to Northern Virginia, home prices there were up 33% year-over-year!  With that came an even greater housing shortage, so once again, if you or a family member are wanting to sell and trade up…don’t delay. I cannot emphasize that enough. 

If you have even thought of selling your home to move to another neighborhood or to trade up, NOW is the time.  Not only will you get more than you might think for your present home, you might find with the low interest rates that your monthly payment won’t be much more than what you are presently paying since the low mortgage rates are offsetting home affordability issues at present. 

With so few existing homes available, yours will get more attention than in the past, and you might be surprised to find it in a bidding war—resulting in more money for you.  That’s just today’s reality.  

New construction starts are up locally and that’s been a great option for some of my clients.  I have a good working relationship with a number of local builders and can help navigate you through the new home buying market as well.  There’s no extra cost to you and with so many more options and decisions to make in that arena, my knowledge can be invaluable and save you both time and money.

This is a lot to consider if changing homes is in your near future.  However, with me by your side we can make it happen.  Just give me a call at 593.1000 or email me at Harry@HarrySalzman.com and let’s work together to make all your residential real estate dreams come true.

 

NAR JUST RELEASED Q4 2019 RESULTS FOR MEDIAN SALES PRICES OF TOP 175 CITIES 

National Association of Realtors, 2.12.20

Colorado Springs is ranked number 26 of 175 cities in the NAR quarterly comparison of the top metropolitan statistical areas for median sales price of existing single-family homes, with a median price of $322,200 at the time of the survey.  The national average is $274,900. To see the complete list of 175 cities, in statistical order, please click here.  To see the alphabetical order, please click here.

NAR also included a survey of the qualifying income based on sales price for existing single-family homes in these same areas.  It was broken down by percentage of down payment.  This information only considers conventional mortgage loans.  A number of homebuyers in Colorado Springs choose to finance their homes through FHA or VA, which would be based on different income requirements.

Based on conventional mortgage loans, the qualifying income necessary at the end of the last quarter of 2019 in Colorado Springs was:

 5% Down:   $68,756

10% Down:  $65,137

20% Down:  $57,900

To see the report of all 175 cities, please click here.

 

WE CAN’T RELY ON LOW MORTGAGE RATES FOREVER

Realtor Mag, 2.7.20

Mortgage loan rates keep falling and sub 4% rates are improving buyers’ purchasing power, but higher borrowing costs will come at some point, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

He added that “at some point, mortgage rates are going to revert back to normal”, noting that the interest rate for a 30-year mortgage was 8.1% in 2000.

Affordability is still lower than historical norms even with today’s low rates and Yun says that the lack of available inventory is continuing to push prices higher.  He said that home ownership has remained flat since 2007 and the wealth gap between renters and homeowners is growing.  

A word to the wise----if you are thinking the low interest rates are here to stay---you might want to reconsider.  What goes down will eventually go up, and sometimes with little warning.

 

NOW A FEW 2020 real estate TIPS AND TRENDS

Rismedia, American Home Shield, 2.14.20

The new year and new decade will undoubtedly bring new trends to the residential real estate market and will see a continuation of some trends that currently affect both real estate investors and homeowners across the USA.  Low mortgage rates, a changing rental landscape, low inventory and other factors will shape 2020 and could influence the decisions to buy and/or sell real estate this year.

 

• Mortgage Rates Will Stay Low at Present.  The Fed has announced plans to keep short-term rates low for the time being, so homebuyers can expect mortgage interest rates to remain low through 2020. Sellers in 2020 can expect buyers to ask them to contribute towards closing costs.  Average closing costs will remain at about 2-5% of the price of the home.

 

• Landlords Will Face New Challenges.  Residential landlords in some areas will need to prepare for rent-control ordinances that could come into effect due to the rapidly escalating rental rates.  Also, with the high cost of homes along with inventory shortage, breaking into the investment market can be difficult in some areas.  Areas with especially high rental rates may find renters looking to move to more affordable areas or to purchase rather than rent if possible.

 

• Inventory Will Remain Low.  Millennials are starting to look at buying their first homes, so the number of homes on the market in desirable areas will remain low, and bidding wars may continue.  A number of baby boomers are either remaining in their homes longer or are looking to downsize into condos, townhomes or smaller homes, which will exacerbate the shortage of available properties on the market.

 

• Starter Homes Will Grow in Popularity.  Starter home construction is speeding up to meet the needs of younger homebuyers who want to purchase their first homes and older home buyers who want to downsize.  With unemployment and interest rates at record lows, and many millennials getting married and starting families, it’ll be no surprise to see newly built starter homes appearing on the market.

 

• Home Prices Will Slow, but Demand Concentration Will Increase.  With new jobs becoming increasingly concentrated around major city centers and in increasingly popular places like Colorado Springs, a growing portion of workers in the service industry will relocate to those areas to seek employment.  That means prices in those areas will continue to grow, but they can’t grow forever. Demand for housing in big markets like ours will continue to stay strong, so once more, if you’re thinking of making a move—now is the time.

 

February 5, 2020

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

                              A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.

2020 IS OFF TO A VERY BRIGHT START…

I last wrote as I finished my annual “State of Residential real estate” presentation before the Colorado Springs City Council.  I hope you enjoyed looking at the slides I presented as much as City Council did.  There is so much to be thankful for as citizens of “Olympic City USA” but along with that comes challenges.  The most obvious is the shortage of available existing home listings.  Our local MLS listings are at an all-time low and that creates problems not only for those who want to sell and trade up or buy for investment purposes, but also for folks who are relocating to the Springs for employment or retirement reasons.

There’s a reason Colorado Springs shows up on so many “Top 10” lists, as those of us who live here know.  You just can’t beat the views, outdoor activities, relative low cost of living, sense of community and small business opportunities. Here are four recent rankings:

 

• The National Association of Realtors (NAR) ranked Colorado Springs among the top 10 metropolitan areas predicted to outperform the nation for at least the next 3-5 years.

 

• The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) ranked Colorado Springs 9^th in the U.S. for home price appreciation.

 

• NAR ranked Colorado Springs 5^th in the 20 Hottest Midwest Housing Markets in October 2019.

 

• Realtor.com ranked Colorado Springs 7^th in the Top 10 Housing Markets Positioned for Growth.

 

And just last month, Colorado Springs was ranked #13 on the prestigious New York Times’ “52 Places to Visit in 2020” list.  The Springs is the third highest ranked U.S. place among seven stateside locations included on this global list.  We earned this accolade thanks in part to being “the gateway to alpine vacationlands, the impending opening of the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic Museum, the soon to come zero-energy Pikes Peak Summit Complex and the flourishing culinary scene”. 

Our home appreciation is among the best in the nation and this is in part due to the lack of available homes for sale.  We are not alone in this trend, as there is also a national shortage of available homes.  The reasons are many and include the still historically low interest rates, the increasing rental rates, millennials finally deciding it’s time for home ownership, and folks staying in their present homes for considerably longer than in the past.  

New home starts are up locally, as you might imagine.  This has become a viable choice for a number of my buyers due to the lack of existing homes for sale.  Fortunately, I have a good relationship with a number of local builders and that has been a blessing for my clients.  I help them with site and home selection, as well as assist in finding the best lender for their individual needs.  And, this is provided at no additional cost to them. It’s obviously an invaluable service I can provide by helping navigate clients through the new home purchase waters.  I might mention that due to the rising cost of lumber and other materials, new homes are going to keep increasing in price, so if that’s on your horizon, NOW would be a great time to start the conversation.

Did I mention that I’m not called “Mr. Negotiator” for nothing?  This comes in handy for my clients not only when they are buying or selling an existing home, but also when looking to purchase new construction.

Speaking of negotiations, it’s so much more important these days to have a seasoned, knowledgeable real estate professional on your team.  My 47 plus years in the local arena, along with my investment banking background, has afforded me the opportunity to work in every type of cycle and to find the way to make all your residential real estate dreams come true.  I invest the time to find out your realistic wants, needs and budget requirements long before the search begins.  That way, when you find what’s right for you, we can make an offer quickly based on actual facts.  These days of multiple and over list price offers does not give you much time to make a decision. 

In fact, some of my clients, after losing a home or two of their choice, have made an offer on a home based on the listing and without ever having set foot in the home.  Unfortunately, that’s the reality today when we have only 1,190 homes available in all price ranges.  In the not so distant past, we would have almost 5,000.  You do the math.  It’s tough out there, but fortunately you’ve got a secret weapon—me.  And with me in your corner, you’ve got a far better than average chance of achieving your residential real estate goals.

If you’ve even considered the possibility of selling in order to trade up, now is a great time.  With so few homes for sale, yours would certainly get more than a few viewings and would likely sell quickly.  It might be necessary to lease your home back from the buyers if possible, in order to make your move, but you are likely to get top dollar for your present home.  You might even have more home equity than you’d expect in order to compensate for paying more for your next home.  With today’s low interest rates, that move could possibly translate to a monthly payment that’s less than you might anticipate.

However—you won’t know any of that until you give me a call.  We can sit down and take all of your personal information into consideration and see if a trade up home can become a reality for you.  Just give me a call at 593.1000 or email me at Harry@HarrySalzman.com and let’s get the ball rolling.  

And now for statistics…

 

JANUARY 2020 

Statistics provided by the Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp., or it’s PPMLS

Here are some highlights from the January 2020 PPAR report.  Remember that the new format of this report no longer provides monthly statistics for each individual neighborhood.  However, if you are interested in what’s happening in your neighborhood, I can provide you with this information through other means.

In El Paso County, the average days on the market for single family/patio homes was 28.  For condo/townhomes is was 22.  

The sales price/list price for single family/patio homes was 99.9% and for condo/townhomes  was 100.2%. 

Please click here to view the detailed 9-page report, including charts.  If you have any questions about the report or to find out how it relates to your individual situation, just give me a call.

In comparing January 2020 to January 2019 for All Homes in PPAR:                       

                        Single Family/Patio Homes:

·       New Listings were 1,333, Up 6.6%

·       Number of Sales were 916, Up 1.6%

·       Average Sales Price was $375,516, Up 9.2%

·       Median Sales Price was $336,795, Up 11.0%

·       Total Active Listings are 1,190, Down 26.4%

·       Months Supply is 1.3, Down 17.0%

 

Condo/Townhomes:

·       New Listings were 200, Up 17.0% 

·       Number of Sales were 136, Down 4.2%

·       Average Sales Price was $268,866, Up 20.0%

·       Median Sales Price was $242,500, Up 18.6%

·       Total Active Listings are 126, Down 11.9%

·       Months Supply is 0.9, Up 2.8%

 

JANUARY 2020  LOCAL MARKET UPDATE   AND  MONTHLY INDICATORS  ILLUSTRATE OUR LOCAL TRENDS IN DETAIL

Colorado Association of REALTORS^{® ,} Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp, or it’s PPMLS

Providing greater detail than the above report, this contains information on both El Paso and Teller counties for Residential real estate. 

It is broken down by geographical areas and you can look to see how your neighborhood is doing in terms of sales, prices, and more.  

The “Activity Snapshot” for all residential properties in El Paso and Teller counties shows the Year to Date one-year change:

• Sold Listings for All Properties were Up 0.2%
• Median Sales Price for All Properties were Up 10.5%
• Active Listings on All Properties were Down 30.8%

You can click here to read the 16-page Monthly Indicators or click here to get specific information on the geographical area of your choice from the 18-page Local Market Update. I recommend that you check out your own area or one that you are considering, to get a good idea of the local pulse. As an example, here is a detailed report on the Colorado Springs area:

 

 

A 2020 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ON real estate FROM THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS (NAR) 

RealtorMag, 1.16.20

 

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR is predicting that a recession is unlikely this year.  According to him, “We expect 2020 will be a year of slower growth but not a recession year.  However, an all-out trade war would lead to an economic downturn in nearly every country, including the U.S.”

Here is the rationale behind his prediction…

1. Unemployment Stays Low … Phase 1 of the Trade Agreement with China takes pressure off industries that were feeling the effects of threatened tariffs.

 

2. MORTGAGE RATES TO SUSTAIN HOUSING DEMAND … Fed unlikely to raise rates in 2020 and given the existing conditions, home sales—existing and new homes combined—are expected to increase by a little over 4%, from 6 million in 2019 to 6.3 million in 2020.

 

 

3. MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN HOUSING SUPPLY …  Housing supply expected to improve this year, but the new supply still will not meet the demand that will be created in 2020 by new household formation, estimated at 1.2 million, and demolished or obsolete housing, estimated at about 450,000.

 

4. COMMERICAL … Bright Outlook for Multifamily and Industrial Properties.  Investors are expected to pay a premium for multifamily, industrial and warehouse properties because of low rental vacancy rates and the sustained demand for ecommerce sales. Low rental vacancy rates mean higher demand for apartments, especially more affordable ones to help the high rental rate burden for many.

 

 

UCCS ECONOMIC FORUM DASHBOARD

UCCS Economic Forum, College of Business, Updated 1.24.20

Here’s a look at the economic picture from a different perspective.  As always, I like to share with you the updated Dashboard from the UCCS Economic Forum.  You can click here to see both the National and Local economic “big picture”.

 

housing market’S “CHOKEPOINT” SHOULD BE FEATURED IN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES

Housing Wire, 1.13.20

The lack of new supply has become the housing market’s “chokepoint”, driving costs of living higher, and should be at the forefront of the 2020 election debates, according to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR.

Instead, there has barely been a mention, other than when former Democratic candidate Julian Castro made an issue about housing NOT being an issue. 

Yun said that the number of single-family homes for sale dipped to 1.45 million in November 2019, the lowest level for that month in a data series that goes back to 1982.  In the intervening years, the U.S. has added 96.5 million people.

“We have an acute housing shortage,” Yun said.  “Consequently, people’s rents and home prices are rising faster than income growth and have been for years.  This issue should be at the forefront of election debates.”

While some candidates have proposed plans to make public colleges and universities free, Yun suggested candidates look into ways to boost employment in construction.  

“No one has discussed ideas for making training in the construction industries free,” Yun said.  “There’s an acute shortage of workers, and the cost would be much less than college tuition.”

The housing shortage and subsequent rise in prices is an issue for us all one way or another and one we might consider addressing with our Congresspeople and Senators.