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HARRY'S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE 10.26.23

by Harry Salzman

October 26, 2023

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Special Brand of Customer Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.

 

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STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS…BUT I’VE GOT SOME ANSWERS…

When you’ve been in the Residential real estate business as I have for 51 plus years, you’ve seen just about every type of “cycle” imaginable.  I’ve seen interest rates as high as 21% and as low as 2%.  I’ve seen a home price in Colorado Springs as low as $18,000 in 1972 and the average price as it is was in September at $553,959. 

So, when it comes to “surprises”, there is very little that surprises me in Residential real estate.  

Why do I mention this?  It should be obvious.  The importance of doing business with a seasoned, knowledgeable professional like myself cannot be overemphasized, and most especially in today’s ever-changing market.  

When you’ve seen it all you know how to respond in a timely and pragmatic way.  My investment banking background also gives me a special heads up on the competition and is an important plus to my clients as I also know how to help them navigate the mortgage market and find the right fit for their individual situation.

Am I bragging?  Maybe.  But I’ve earned the right.  

Forty percent of the Residential real estate agents in the National Association of Realtors (NAR) have been in sales for ten years or less.  They have not witnessed many cycles and have enjoyed working when the historically low interest rates caused the buying frenzy of recent years.  Those were the “easy” years.  

The going gets tough when you have to deal with interest rates that have escalated as quickly as they have in the last year and buyers and sellers need help with figuring out how to make this market work for their individual wants, needs and budget requirements.

Let’s face it.  The historically low interest rates of a few years ago are gone and I seriously doubt we will see them again for a very long time, if ever.  So now it’s time to move on and address what’s happening today.

Rates are high…and are likely to stay that way for a while and buyer traffic is less than normal due to those high rates.   

But as I’ve continually said, rates don’t tell the whole story.  The BIG story is that home appreciation is on the rise, and it will continue to do so.

Yes, some of that is due to the lack of available homes for sale.  But, while economists had forecasted either a flat or negative appreciation this year, those forecasts have changed.  And, here in Colorado Springs we have already surpassed my MY forecast of 2-3%.

Here is a copy of the most recently revised national year-end home price forecasts:

 

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So, if you’ve thought about making a move, waiting for rates to come down while home values are appreciating might not be in your best interest. (no pun intended).

I’ve recently been working with clients who want to sell to trade up or move to a new location and while it’s not as easy as it was just a year ago, it’s still doable, depending on inventory.  Where there’s a will…my clients have me.  And I can always find a way if it’s at all possible and in their best interest.  And if it’s not…I will tell them that as well.

After all, I’m not in business for a quick sale.  I’m here for the long haul and to cultivate relationships and will always put the best interest of my clients first.  That’s why I’m still in business and have had the pleasure of working with not only my long-time clients but also their kids and even a grandchild or two at times.

If you’ve even been thinking about a move, please give me a call at 719.593.1000 or email me at Harry@HarrySalzman.com and let’s get together and see how together make your Residential real estate dreams come true.

 

AND ANOTHER WORD FROM ME…

If you’ve got a minute and 37 seconds, I’ve got some additional news for you.  Click on the link below to hear my latest podcast:

 

https://youtu.be/mRYOmy4p2j4

 

Be sure to “subscribe” online to hear my “blurbs” when they are first available.

 

 

WHO ARE WE?  A LOOK AT EL PASO COUNTY AND COLORADO SPRINGS BY THE NUMBERS

The Gazette, 10.1.23

Below is an article that was in the Sunday Gazette several weeks ago and I thought if you hadn’t seen it you might be interested in the statistics.  So…here you go…

 

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HOME PRICE GROWTH IS RETURNING TO NORMAL…an Infographic

Keeping Current Matters, 10.20.23

 

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  • Just another illustration of what I’ve been saying.  Home appreciation is again on the rise and likely to keep rising.
  • Based on typical seasonality in the market, prices go up most in the spring during the busy buying season and then price growth slows down as the year goes on.
  • Home prices aren’t falling.  They are just rising slower at this time of year and going back to normal seasonal trends.  And that’s a good thing.

 

THREE THINGS HOME BUYERS CAN ASK FOR NOW

The Wall Street Journal, 10.9.23

Home buyers are facing steep costs and few options as mortgage rates push 8% and new listings are scarce.  However, the good news is that they have more leverage than they realize.

With lenders having to compete for business now that higher rates have scared off many potential buyers, some may be willing to reduce some fees.  Besides shopping around for the best rate, there are also a handful of extras that buyers can ask for to reduce their closing costs and monthly payments.

Sellers are also more receptive to certain requests than they were during the height of the pandemic-fueled housing frenzy since they don’t want to risk losing the deal.  In August of this year, nearly 16% of pending home sales nationally fell through as buyers got cold feet, compared with about 11.7% in August 2021, according to Redfin.

A you might guess, a buyer’s power to negotiate largely depends on how much competition there is for the house.  Here are three things to consider asking for from the seller:

 

  1. Help with closing costs.

 

  1. Get a rate buy-down on your mortgage.  (more lenders, sellers and home builders are offering to help lower a buyer’s mortgage interest rate for a certain period, a move known as a rate buy-down).

 

  1. Fixing up the house.  Sellers are more receptive to making repairs than they were two years ago.  

 

These are three things that could help make a difference in what you ultimately pay for a new home.  Please call me with any questions or to see how any, or all, of these options could apply to you.

 

ERA SHIELDS QUARTERLY STAT PACK 

Data through September 2023, ERA Shields

Here is data from my company’s quarterly “Stat Pack” that can better help you understand the local buying and selling reality.  I have reproduced the first page, and you can click here to get the report in its entirety. 

HARRY'S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE 10.6.23

by Harry Salzman

October 6, 2023

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my “Special Brand of Customer Service”, it is my desire to share current Residential real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable Buyer and Seller.

 

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YES, MORTGAGE LOAN RATES ARE UP AGAIN…BUT THEN SO ARE HOME VALUES

We are hearing a lot about the rising mortgage interest rates these days, especially since the average 30-year fixed-rate hit 7.49% this week, a new 23 year high according to Freddie Mac.  

But what you’re not hearing as much about nationally is that home values are also on the rise.  And locally, they have been again for several months.

Why mention that?  Well, it should be obvious.  Yes, if you’re buying a new home your mortgage interest rate WILL likely be higher than whatever your current rate may be, BUT…with home values increasing monthly, your investment will begin earning dividends right away.  

If you are wanting to buy and have decided to wait for interest rates to go down, there’s no telling when that will happen, or when it does, how low the rates will fall.  They are not likely to ever go back to the historic lows of several years ago but should drop a bit by the second quarter of next year according to experts.

Home appreciation isn’t going to stop and depending on the number of available homes for sale it’s likely to keep rising faster.  It’s a Seller’s Market and until there are more homes on the market it will continue that way.

Folks were thinking that when mortgage rates first started rising home values would go down as they did during the housing bust of 2008.  Didn’t happen.  Economists kept saying it would not happen and it didn’t.  But it did prevent some from buying homes at that time as they worried about a repeat of the late 2000’s.

At the end of last year, I made my annual forecast for our local economist, Tatiana Bailey, and I told her I believed home values would increase by 2-3% this year.  So far, I am basically on target as you will see in the statistics below.  And I’m hopeful we could even end the year a bit stronger.

Something else you might consider if you are looking to buy at present.  Mortgage interest rates are negotiable!  There was a big article in today’s Wall Street Journal talking about just that and I’ve seen that in recent times with my buyers.  

Mortgage lenders want to lend!  When they don’t make loans, they are not making money.  It’s that simple.  As I always tell you…it’s Econ 101…Supply and Demand.  Therefore, they are will to entertain negotiations on the rate.

You can find in today’s 30-year fixed-rate arena rates anywhere from 7.5%-8% depending on the lender.  

And rates WILL go down in the next few years and as they do, mortgage loans can be refinanced at those lower rates.  In fact, some buyers have that specifically put in their loan package, depending on the lender.

That’s why it’s so important to have a professional like me on your team.  I’ve been called “Mr. Negotiator” for many years and it’s to my clients’ advantage.  My Investment Banking background makes it a natural for me to deal with lenders for my clients.

Yes, things are somewhat in a flux in Residential real estate, but if you’ve even considered buying or selling during the past year and held back for whatever reason, give me a call and let’s see how we can make that happen.

And, if you’ve got a minute and 20 seconds, I’ve got some more news for you.  Simply click on the link below and you will be directed to my personal YouTube channel.

To watch, click here:

 

https://youtu.be/GcwHkMlRd8k

 

In fact, while you’re at it, you might want to subscribe to my channel, so you won’t miss my future broadcasts.  It won’t cost you anything…well, it could cost you… if you miss some of my informative musings!

So, as always, if Residential real estate is among your current hopes and dreams, please give me a call at 719.593.1000 or email me at Harry@HarrySalzman.com and let me help make them come true.

 

And now for statistics…

 

SEPTEMBER 2023

Statistics provided by the Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp., or it’s PPMLS

Here are some highlights from the September 2023 PPAR report. 

 

In El Paso County, the average days on the market for single family/patio homes was 36.  For condo/townhomes it was 28.  

Also in El Paso County, the sales price/list price for single family/patio homes was 99.2% and for condo/townhomes it was 99.6%.  

In Teller County, the average days on the market for single family/patio homes was 43 and the sales/list price was 121.5%.

Please click here to view the detailed 10-page report, including charts.  If you have any questions about the report or to find out how it relates to your individual situation, just give me a call.

 

In comparing September 2023 to September 2022 for All Homes in PPAR:

 

                        Single Family/Patio Homes:

  • New Listings were 1,243, Down 17.0%
  • Number of Sales were 1,008, Down 22.1%
  • Average Sales Price was $540,882 Up 3.4%
  • Median Sales Price was $475,000, Up 3.3%
  • Total Active Listings are 2,484, Down 7.7%
  • Months Supply is 2.5, Up 0.3

 

Condo/Townhomes:

  • New Listings were 186, Down 9.3% 
  • Number of Sales were 131, Down 47.2%
  • Average Sales Price was $369,467, Up 1.7%
  • Median Sales Price was $350,000, Up 1.4%
  • Total Active Listings are 366, Up 55.7%
  • Months Supply is 2.8, Down 1.2

 

SEPTEMBER 2023 MONTHLY INDICATORS AND LOCAL MARKET UPDATE ILLUSTRATE OUR LOCAL TRENDS IN DETAIL

Colorado Association of REALTORS® , Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp, or it’s PPMLS

Providing greater detail than the above report, this contains information on both El Paso and Teller counties for Residential real estate. 

The “Activity Snapshot” for all residential properties in El Paso and Teller counties shows the Year-to-Date one-year change:

 

  • Sold Listings for All Properties were Down 26.8%

 

  • Median Sales Price for All Properties was Up 4.5%

 

  • Active Listings on All Properties were Down 11.9%

 

You can click here to read the 16-page Monthly Indicators or click here to get specific information on the geographical are of your choice from the 18-page Local Market Update.  It’s a good idea to check out your own area or one that you might be considering in order to get a good idea of the local pulse.  As an example, here is a detailed report on the Colorado Springs area:

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HOW HOMEOWNER NET WORTH GROWS WITH TIME…AN INFOGRAPHIC

Keeping Current Matters, 9.6.23

This helps demonstrate what I’ve said throughout my entire Residential real estate Career…owning a home is an important part of increasing one’s net worth!  

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A couple of highlights:

  • If you are thinking of buying a home, most especially in this current market, be sure to consider the long-term financial advantages of homeownership, like home equity.
  • On average, people who bought homes 32 years ago have seen their home’s value nearly triple over that time.

 

ECONOMIC & WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT REPORT

Data-Driven Economic Strategies, September 2023

As always, I like to share the useful economic data I receive from our “local economist”, Tatiana Bailey.  You will see in these charts what’s happening locally in terms of the economy as well as the most recent Workforce Progress Report. 

This information is especially invaluable to business owners; however, I think you all will all find it worthwhile reading.

To access the report, please click here and if you have any questions, please give me a holler.

 

UCCS ECONOMIC FORUM MONTHLY DASHBOARD

Updated September 22, 2023, UCCS College of Business/Economic Forum

I’ve always shared the monthly report from the UCCS College of Business Economic Forum when available and I know several of you who enjoy statics use this information in your daily business life. 

Now that there is a new director, Dr. Bill Craighead, I should be publishing it monthly once again.

Here is a reproduction of the first page, and to read the report in its entirety, please click here.

 

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Harry A Salzman
ERA Shields / Salzman Real Estate Services
6385 Corporate Drive, Suite 301
Colorado Springs CO 80919
719-593-1000
Cell: 719-231-1285
Fax: 719-548-9357

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