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HARRY'S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE 12.20.18

by Harry Salzman

December 20, 2018 

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

         A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Unique Brand of Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.

SOME THOUGHTS AND COMMENTS TO CLOSE OUT 2018

This has been another busy December, which, in the “old days”, would be considered unusual.  Today, it’s becoming the norm.  I’m certain that a lot of it is due to the inevitable rise in mortgage interest rates along with the swift increase in the median home prices locally.  

It’s been a great time to both buy and sell, but it’s been especially great for investors because the number of renters is starting to increase again along with the rates and prices. The volatile stock market is another reason that investors are flocking to purchase homes, as their return on investment, along with monthly income, provides the security they seek.  While there aren’t as many “bargains” as in the not so recent past, there are still a number of properties that are perfect for investors. If you’ve even considered real estate as an investment, give me a call and we can discuss whether or not this is a viable option for you.  And, as always, be sure to talk to your tax advisor also to see what he or she has to say about this possibility.

I was listening to a recent videocast the other day concerning the current state of residential real estate and was surprised at some of the things that were said.  The most amazing was that 73% of all Realtors nationwide were not involved in selling real estate when the mortgage interest rates were above 5%.

This translates to the fact that only 27% of us residential real estate professionals are able to understand what the current trend can mean to potential buyers,sellers and investors. I’ve been in the local real estate arena for more than 46 years and have seen 30-year fixed-rates go as high as 20% and recently as low as 2.75%.  My expertise is especially important with an upward trend in rates as my negotiation skills and special brand of customer service come into play even more during these times.  It’s not terribly difficult for agents to buy and sell homes in a fast-moving market, but when things slow down, as they are beginning to do, that’s when experience and expert knowledge come into play.  

And when it comes to experience and expertise—I’m your man!  Give me a call and let’s discuss how I can put this to use for YOU.

I can be reached at 593.1000 or by email at Harry@HarrySalzman.com and welcome talking to you, your co-workers, family and friends.  It’s worth the to find out how to maximize your Residential real estate investment and I’m always happy to be of help. 

 

NOVEMBER 2018 LOCAL MARKET UPDATE AND MONTHLY INDICATORS ILLUSTRATE OUR LOCAL TRENDS IN GREATER DETAIL

Pikes Peak REALTORS®Services Corp., 

These reports contain much greater detail than the first-of-the-month reports I share and cover ALL residential areas in the Pikes Peak Region. 

     The “Activity Snapshot”shows the Year to Date one-year change:

  • Sold Listings for All Properties were down 9.9%
  • Median Sales Price for All Properties was up 5.5%
  • Active Listings on All Properties were up 16.8%.

You can click here to read the 16-page Monthly Indicators or click here to get specific information on the neighborhood of your choice from the 34-page Local Market Update. I recommend that you check out your own neighborhood, or one that you are considering, to get a good idea of the local pulse. I have reprinted just one neighborhood, West, below to show you the type of information available for all local areas.

For questions about any of these reports or just to find out how I can put my special brand of customer service to work for you, please give me a call.

 

HOMEOWNERS AGED 65+ HAVE 48X MORE NET WORTH THAN RENTERS

Keeping current matters, 12.4.18

The Federal Reserve conducts their Survey of Consumer Finances every three years and they collect data across all economic and social groups.  Their latest survey data covers responses from 2013-2016.

This study revealed that the median net worth of a homeowner was $231,400—a 15% increase since 2013.  At the same time, the median net worth of renters decreased by 5% ($5,200 today compared to $5,500 in 2013).

This indicates that the net worth of a homeowner is over 44 times greater than that of a renter.

Many who see that statistic point toward how broad the range of respondents are for the Federal Reserve study since the study includes all economic and social groups and also includes all age groups.  Their argument is that older respondents have a higher likelihood of being homeowners, while the homeownership rate among younger survey takers is much lower.

However, a recent report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University focused on homeowners and renters over the age of 65. This study revealed that the difference in net worth between homeowners and renters at this age group (65+) was actually 47.5 times greater!

Homeowners over the age of 65 are much more financially prepared for retirement and often own their homes outright if they were fortunate enough to purchase their homes before the age of 36.   Their 30 years of mortgage payments have paid off as they gained equity through their monthly payments and as home values appreciated.

It should come as no surprise that lifelong renters have had a difficult time accruing net worth as the latest Census Report shows that the Median Asking Rent has been climbing consistently over the last 30 years.

        

Bottom Line: 

As a homeowner, no matter your age, you put your monthly mortgage payment to work for you—not someone else—and thus are building your net worth with every payment.

 

MORTAGE RATES SINK TO THREE-MONTH LOWS

Realtor Mag, 12.14.18

Potential buyers and refinancers saw a little relief in borrowing costs last week as the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage moved to its lowest average since mid-September, according to a report from Freddie Mac.

“Mortgage rates have either fallen or remained flat for five consecutive weeks and purchase applicants are responding with an uptick in demand given these lower rates,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “While the housing market softened in response to higher rates through most of this year, the combination of a low unemployment and recent downdraft in rates should support home sales heading into the early winter months.”

What does this mean to you? Well, as buyers, sellers or investors, you now have a window of opportunity to take advantage of these still historically low rates.  With the Federal Reserve increasing rates again this week, I’m guessing it won’t’ take long for rates to start back up.  This is possibly the “last hurrah” for lower rates, so if you are even thinking of buying, selling or investing—don’t delay. Call me and let’s see how to make this opportunity work for you.

 

WHERE ARE INTEREST RATES HEAD IN 2019?

Keeping current matters, 12.5.18

Since the interest rate you pay on a home mortgage has a direct impact on your monthly payment, the higher the rate, the greater the payment will be.  That’s why it is important to know where rates are headed when deciding to start your home search and as I just mentioned, why NOW is the time to get serious before rates go up.

Below is a chart created using Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic & Housing Marketing Outlook.  As you can see, interest rates are projected to increase steadily throughout 2019:

Depending on the amount of the mortgage loan you secure, a half a percent (.5%) increase in interest rate can increase your monthly payment significantly.

This chart takes a look at a historical view of interest rates over the last 45 years.

Basically, what you need to realize is that the prediction of higher interest rates should not stop you from purchasing your dream home.  As you see above, you can be thankful that you can still get a much better interest rate than your parents or others did twenty years ago, and most certainly a better rate than your grandparents did 40 years ago.

 

AND LAST, BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST….

HARRY'S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE 12.5.18

by Harry Salzman

December 5, 2018

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

           A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.

 

IT MAY BE TRADITIONALLY HOLIDAY TIME, BUT IT’S ALSO A GREAT TIME FOR BUYERS, SELLERS AND INVESTORS

The Gazette, 11.17, 12.4, The Wall Street Journal, 11.28

It’s been a busy month and lots of positive stuff coming our way.  Colorado Springs has consistently been one of the hottest housing markets in 2018 and now—in 2019 it could be ranked as Number 1 in the nation!  

real estate service Trulia has ranked our city as the Number 1 market poised for growth next year.  That’s a great indication that prices and sales are going to continue to climb in 2019, which is great news for buyers, sellers and investors alike.

The ranking was based on looking at the 100 largest housing markets and ranking them on five indicators: job growth over the past year, a tight supply of rental properties, the affordability of homes for first-time buyers, a large share of millennials who represent more potential entry-level buyers and data that indicates more people are researching moves to Colorado Springs instead of leaving here and relocating to another city.

And these new residents and recently hired folks are going to need places to live—either to buy or to rent!

This is all great news for local residential real estate because while our home sales numbers are leveling off, the rate of appreciation is slowing to more historically normal averages, and inventory, while still low, is increasing.  We are headed into a more normal housing market and that’s good for everyone.  

Interest rates are higher than they’ve been in a number of years, but they are still at affordable levels and while the Fed has indicated they will raise rates again this month, they seem tentative about the pace of further increases after that. This provides a good opportunity for those who have been wanting to “trade up” or move to a new neighborhood as mortgage rates will still be reasonable.

Local homebuilding is on pace for a 13-year high and this has become a viable option for many of my clients with the shortage of available homes for sale.  In case you are not aware—this is an area where I can be of service to you.  I’ve got long time relationships with many local builders, know the “ins and outs” of what needs to be done and can help you in making the right decisions—even in securing financing that is tailored to your needs.  And as a buyer, all of this is provided by me with no additional cost to you!

Investment options, which were getting scarce, are once again a possibility for those who wish to become landlords.  The shortage of rental properties in general is providing a good incentive for investors. In fact, just this past week I was out with long time family clients of mine who were looking for an investment property.  While we lost the first one in a bidding war, my clients ended up purchasing TWO properties!   As most of you know, I put my money where my mouth is and am a true believer in rental properties, which I’ve owned for many years.  So, if you are thinking those type of investments might be right for you, just give me a call and let’s get rolling.

In fact, if you’ve even THOUGHT about what your possibilities in residential real estate might be—I’m your man. With more than 46 years of experience in the local real estate arena and a background in investment banking, I am doubly qualified to help you make the decisions that are right for your individual needs, wants and budget.  So don’t wait—give me a call at 593.100 or email me at Harry@HarrySalzman.comand let’s make your real estate dreams come true.

 

And now for November statistics…

Homes are selling at 99.1% of listing price with the average days on the market at 33.  

This continues to be great news for both buyers and sellers and with homes not selling at such a frenzy but still selling quickly, it still necessitates knowing where you plan to move next prior to listing your present home.  

 

NOVEMBER 2018 BROUGHT ABOVE AVERAGE GAINS IN HOME VALUES 

Statistics provided by the Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp, or it’s PPMLS

Here are some highlights from the November 2018 PPAR report.  A look at the Median Sales Prices will show that prices are continuing to rise while sales are also continuing to slow down.  Please click here to view the detailed 15-page report, including charts. 

As you will see, all areas but two had an increase in median home prices year-over-year. If you’re shopping for a new home, it’s going to cost you more, so the sooner you start the better. If you have any questions about the report or to find out how your individual situation relates to the stats, just give me a call. 

In comparing November 2018 to November 2017 for All Homes in PPAR:                                                              

                        Single Family/Patio Homes:

·       New Listings are 1,110, Up 2.8%

·       Number of Sales are 1,096, Down 12.7%

·      Average Sales Price is $342,617, Up 8.0%

·      Median Sales Price is $303,000, Up 8.2%

·       Total Active Listings are 2,153 Up 31.0%

·       Months Supply is 2.0

 

                        Condo/Townhomes:

·       New Listings are 145, Down 10.5%

·       Number of Sales are 181, Up 8.4%

·      Average Sales Price is $225,240 Up 9.8%

·      Median Sales Price is $214,000, Up 14.4%

·       Total Active Listings are 164, Up 64.0%

·       Months Supply is 0.9

 

COLORADO SPRINGS AREA MONTHLY SINGLE FAMILY/PATIO HOME SALES ANALYSIS*

                                       Median Sales Price              Median Sales Price

                                          November 2018                      November 2017

 

Black Forest                             $567,500                              $470,500                    

Briargate                                   $399,725                              $369,500            

Central                                      $247,500                              $234,750

East                                           $267,000                              $244,000

Fountain Valley:                       $269,700                              $247,000

Manitou Springs:                     $390,000                              $365,900

Marksheffel:                             $306,288                              $331,539

Northeast:                                $305,000                              $271,400

Northgate:                                $460,000                              $430,042            

Northwest:                                $398,750                             $389,950            

Old Colorado City:                   $285,000                             $289,000            

Powers:                                     $299,900                             $275,000

Southeast:                                $232,500                              $206,500

Southwest:                               $354,200                              $302,000

Tri-Lakes:                                 $534,900                              $455,000

West:                                         $319,250                              $240,000

*Statistics provided by the Pikes Peak REALTORS Services Corp,or its PPMLS.

If you’re even considering a move and wondering how to make it happen, NOW is the time.   Let me put my special brand of customer service to work for you, your family members, co-workers or friends.  Give me a call today.

 

UCCS ECONOMIC FORUM DASHBOARD

UCCS Economic Forum, Updated 11.28.18

As always, I like to share with you the information I receive from the UCCS Economic Forum as soon as I get it.  It provides you with the Big Picture of the U.S. Economy as well as what’s happening in the Colorado Springs area.  

Once again, very positive data and definitely worth a look. To see the 32 charts, please click here. If you have any questions, please give me a call.

 

HOME APPRAISALS GO HIGH-TECH

The Wall Street Journal, 11.30

Some interesting news is possibly in the making!  In this case, let’s hope it doesn’t come to fruition.

A proposal for loosening real-estate appraisal rules so a majority of homes can be bought and sold without being evaluated by a licensed human appraiser was made last month by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Reserve.  This potentially opens the door for cheaper, faster, but also largely untested property valuations that are based on computer algorithms.

The proposed plan would increase to $400,000 from $250,000 the value of homes that can be bought and sold without a tape-measure-toting appraiser visiting the property.  More than two-thirds of U.S. homes sell for $400,000 or less, according to U.S. Census data and NAR.

Had this plan been in force last year, about 214,000 additional home sales, or some $68 billion worth, could have been made without an appraisal, according to the proposal.

One issue is that automated valuations done by computers are largely unregulated.  The 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul required regulators to propose quality-control standards for so-called automated valuation models, or AVMs, but they have yet to do so.

The immediate effect of dropping appraisal requirements would be limited because a vast majority of home loans in that range are bought these days by Fannie or Freddie or guaranteed by other federal agencies. Those typically require appraisals regardless of home value.

While there is a shortage of human appraisers and at times getting an appraisal can take much longer than we would like, “there’s still no computer that can see, hear, taste, smell and touch,” said an appraiser from Virginia.   “Have you ever been in a hoarder’s house?” he added!

I’ll end this story as I started it—let’s hope this doesn’t happen.  Appraisals are necessary and worth the time and money that they take in order for a buyer to make certain they are getting exactly what they think they are.

 

HOMEOWNERSHIP DELAY HURTS FINANCIAL HEALTH

REALTORmagazine 11.19

A new report from the Urban Institute warns that millennials who put off homeownership may be severely curtailing their ability to build wealth over their lifetimes.  Purchasing a home at an early age offers a “big bang for their housing buck” concludes the report’s authors.

Researchers tracked individuals since 1968 to identify those who reached age 60 between 2003 and 2015 and how homeownership has affected their finances.  Of those now in their early 60s, individuals who had purchased their first home between the ages of 25 and 34 had a median housing wealth of $150,000, while those who waited to buy until they were between 35 and 44 had $72,000 less. Those who did not buy until 45 or older had median wealth of at least $100,000 less than those who purchased between the ages of 25 to 24, according to the study.

Those who bought their home at the youngest ages—before 25—had the second largest amount of equity, at a median of $130,000. Researchers said they likely didn’t have the most equity due to their younger age and because they had lower incomes and less education at that point in their lives.  But those who purchased at younger ages still tended to have the largest returns on their initial investment, the report showed.

The difference in housing wealth among the age groups is due to home appreciation and paying down their mortgage debt, researchers noted.

Half of the older adults in the study’s sample bought their first home between 25 and 34; 27% purchased their first home before age 25.  That is much higher than today’s generation.  In 2016, 37% of those between the ages of 25 and 34 owned a home, as did 13% between ages 18 and 24.

The delay in homeownership for millennials could have long-term economic consequences.  Equity is usually the largest single source of personal wealth. “While people make the choice to own or rent that suits them at a given point, maybe more young adults should take into account the long-term consequences of renting when homeownership is an option,” the researchers noted in the report.

 

AND ONE LAST NOTE…FYI

Housingwire.com, 11.27

After not increasing the maximum conforming loan limits on mortgages to be acquired by Fannie and Freddie for 10 years, the Federal Housing Finance Agency has now increased the conforming loan limit for the third straight year.

Last week, the FHFA announced that it is increasing the conforming loan limit for Fannie and Freddie mortgages in nearly every part of the U.S.  The limits will rise from this year’s total of $453,100 to $484,350 for 2019.  That’s an increase of 6.9% from this year’s loan limit to next.

 

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Harry A Salzman
Salzman Real Estate Services
5475 Tech Center Drive, Suite 300
Colorado Springs CO 80919
719-593-1000 or Toll Free: 800-677-MOVE(6683)
Cell: 719-231-1285
Fax: 719-548-9357

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