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HARRY'S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE 1.22.19

by Harry Salzman

January 22, 2019

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

          A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Unique Brand of Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.

MORTGAGE RATES DROP DESPITE PREDICTIONS

Recent predictions aside, and despite mortgage rates spiking in early January from the recent historic lows, mortgage rates have declined and are holding their own at present.  

Since early November, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has fallen nearly half a percentage point from 4.94 percent to 4.45 percent, where it stood at the end of last week.  While it didn’t go down as it did for the six weeks prior, it held steady last week.  Existing home sales got a good boost in November and when NAR’s data for December is released today it may reveal whether lower mortgage rates have escalated sales gains again.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said on Thursday that he expects recent declines in mortgage rates to keep home sales on an upward track—possibly leading to an additional 200,000 transactions in 2019.  “Buyers will want to take advantage of the lower rates,” Yun says.  “this additional demand will help absorb inventory.  Both home prices and home sales will be lifted.”

While this is great news for buyers, sellers and investors alike, it also shows that what can go down so quickly can also jump just as fast.  I tell you this because those of you who have put off buying due to the rising interest rates can now have a chance to “lock in a good rate while the getting’s good”.  Rates are not likely to stay this low.

As you will see below, prices are continuing to rise, but at a “more normal” pace than in the past year, and that, combined with the lower interest rates, will certainly work in your favor if you are looking to sell and trade up or buy for the first time.

If investment properties are what you are seeking, now is also a great time for you.  The need for rental properties is increasing as a number of first-time buyers are burdened with college loan and other debt and others cannot qualify for the recent higher priced home values.  As a matter of fact, I have done a price comparison to show potential investors that compares home values in Colorado Springs vs. the stock market appreciation over the past 30 years.  It would be my pleasure to share this with you to help you maximize your investment dollars.  As always, though, I would advise you to check with your tax advisor first to make certain that this is the right move for your personal situation.

All-in-all—there’s something for everyone and all it takes is a call for me to sit down and show you how I can put my 46 plus years of local residential real estate experience to work for you.

I can be reached at 593.1000 or by email at Harry@HarrySalzman.com and welcome talking to you, your co-workers, family and friends.  It’s worth your time to find out how to maximize your Residential real estate investment and I’m always happy to be of help. 

 

DECEMBER 2018 LOCAL MARKET UPDATE AND MONTHLY INDICATORS ILLUSTRATE OUR LOCAL TRENDS IN GREATER DETAIL

Pikes Peak REALTORS®Services Corp., 

These reports contain much greater detail than the first-of-the-month reports I share and cover ALL residential areas in the Pikes Peak Region. 

     The “Activity Snapshot”shows the Year to Date one-year change:

  • Sold Listings for All Properties were down 13.7%
  • Median Sales Price for All Properties was up 6.7%
  • Active Listings on All Properties were up 12.5%

You can click here to read the 16-page Monthly Indicators or click here to get specific information on the neighborhood of your choice from the 34-page Local Market Update. I recommend that you check out your own neighborhood, or one that you are considering, to get a good idea of the local pulse. I have reprinted just one neighborhood, Peyton, below to show you the type of information available for all local areas.

For questions about any of these reports or just to find out how I can put my special brand of customer service to work for you, please give me a call.

 

COLORADO SPRINGS: ANNUAL HOUSING REVIEW AND FUN FACTS…

From ERA Shields real estate Annual Review and info from Pikes Peak REALOR Services Corp or its PPMLS

HARRY'S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE 1.7.19

by Harry Salzman

January 7, 2019

 

HARRY’S BI-WEEKLY UPDATE

          A Current Look at the Colorado Springs Residential real estate Market

As part of my Personal Service, it is my desire to share current real estate issues that will help to make you a more successful and profitable buyer or seller.

happy-new-year-poster-with-cute-houses-

LOOKING BACK FOR A MOMENT…AND THEN LOOKING AHEAD

We just concluded another record setting year in local Residential real estate, and while I anticipate this year to be more of the same, I expect it to be a bit less of a frenzy.

With interest rates on the rise and home values increasing, although a bit slower than in the recent past, it should be a good market for buyers, sellers and investors.  I expect the median home price increases to normalize somewhat this year, which is good for everyone. As that happens, there will be more homes for sale and more folks can sell and trade up.

The higher rates and prices are making it more difficult for first-time buyers to qualify and are driving more folks to rent while saving for a down payment and paying down current debts. This creates a good opportunity for investors who want to add real estate to their portfolio.  With the volatility of the stock market in recent days, the value of real estate return on investment is most definitely outpacing stocks and bonds.  However, with capital gains, new tax laws and other issues pertinent to your individual situation, if you are considering an investment home please first check with your tax advisor to make certain this fits into your personal investment portfolio. If it does, please give me a call and let me see how we can make this work for you.

The Colorado Springs job market is still strong, with low unemployment and a number of high paying jobs open at present.  In fact, Wallhub.comrecently named our city “The Top U.S. City for Employment Growth”.  Of the 182 cities surveyed in the 2019 Best Cities for Jobs”, Colorado Springs ranked considerably above average in most areas and slightly above average in housing affordability and average work and commute time.  Denver ranked 13thon the list of best places to find a job and Aurora ranked 48.  

A number of the lower predications for housing growth and appreciation for much of the U.S. will not be the same as our local ones due to the influx of new companies to our area. There are a number of factors at work to insure a relative strong housing market locally.

Millennials are finding Colorado Springs a great place to live and downtown gentrification, the job market, and relative low cost-of-living are among the reasons for this.  Young people are discovering our city and making it their home once again.  This was the case when I first moved here more almost 47 years ago, and I’m thrilled to see it happening all over again.  Thanks to the hard work of Mayor John Suthers, the City Council and so many others, Colorado Springs is thriving, vibrant and an amazing place to call home.

A new year brings with it new hopes and dreams.  If Residential real estate is among your hopes and dreams, please give me a call at 593.1000 or email me at Harry@HarrySalzman.com and let me help makes those dreams come true.

 

And now for statistics…

Since these are year-end statistics, I am providing you with both the regularly posted year-over-year monthly statistics as well as 2018 annual statistics.  As you will see, the 2018 annual statistics provide a better indication of how we fared in last year, especially since the month of December, as always, is a slow real estate time due to the holidays.

In December, homes are sold at 99.4% of listing price with the average days on the market at 37.

The Monthly Summary shows that compared to a year ago, total active listings are up 24.8% for Single Family/Patio Homes and up 86.3% for Condo/Townhomes.  New listings are down 15.2% for Single Family/Patio Homes down 12.2% for Condo/Townhomes.  

I’m not surprised about the fewer new listings due to the holidays and also, since mortgage rates, although still very reasonable, are the highest they’ve been in seven years and home prices are continuing to rise.  Folks are realizing that it’s possible they will be priced out of buying a “trade up” home, either because of the potentially higher monthly payments or because potential buyers for their existing home may find it harder to qualify.  In either case, higher rates are not going to disappear, and home prices won’t keep up the pace of 2018 but will certainly continue to rise.  

 

DECEMBER 2018 AGAIN BROUGHT GAINS IN HOME VALUES BUT LOWER NUMBER OF SALES

Statistics provided by the Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp, or it’s PPMLS

Here are some highlights from the December 2018 PPAR report.  A look at the Median Sales Prices will show that prices are continuing to rise while sales are also continuing to slow down.  Please click here to view the detailed 14-page report, including charts. 

If you’re shopping for a new home, it’s going to cost you more, but remember, you can likely use the increased equity in your present home to make up the difference. If you have any questions about the report or to find out how your individual situation relates to the stats, just give me a call. 

In comparing December 2018 to December 2017 for All Homes in PPAR:                                                            

                        Single Family/Patio Homes:

·       New Listings are 717, Down 15.2%

·       Number of Sales are 1,064, Down 11.8%

·      Average Sales Price is $340,907, Up 5.5%

·      Median Sales Price is $300,855, Up 5.6%

·       Total Active Listings are 1,685, Up 24.8%

·       Months Supply is 1.6

 

                        Condo/Townhomes:

·       New Listings are 115, Down 12.2%

·       Number of Sales are 145, Down 9.4%

·      Average Sales Price is $227,354, Up 16.4%

·      Median Sales Price is $215,000 Up 12.4%

·       Total Active Listings are 149, Up 86.3%

·       Months Supply is 1.0

 

COLORADO SPRINGS AREA MONTHLY SINGLE FAMILY/PATIO HOME SALES ANALYSIS*

                                       Median Sales Price              Median Sales Price

                                             December 2018                     December 2017

Black Forest                             $555,000                              $432,000                       

Briargate                                   $429,450                              $381,000            

Central                                     $253,450                              $231,000

East                                          $265,000                              $243,500

Fountain Valley:                       $277,250                              $261,500

Manitou Springs:                     $310,000                              $350,000

Marksheffel:                             $315,000                              $341,500

Northeast:                                $305,500                              $285,000

Northgate:                                $502,395                               $415,000

Northwest:                                $380,000                              $425,000            

Old Colorado City:                   $262,000                              $230,000            

Powers:                                     $306,000                              $280,000

Southeast:                                $238,450                              $215,000

Southwest:                               $318,500                              $355,000

Tri-Lakes:                                 $494,900                              $454,500

West:                                        $281,500                              $282,400

*Statistics provided by the Pikes Peak REALTORS Services Corp,or its PPMLS.

 

If you’re even considering a move and wondering how to make it happen, NOW is the time.   

Simply give me a call and let’s see how I can put my special brand of customer service to work for you, your family members or co-workers who might also be looking.

 

COLORADO SPRINGS AREA ANNUAL SALES ANALYSIS

Statistics provided by the Pikes Peak REALTORS Service Corp, or it’s PPMLS

Below are the 2018 annual statistics.  Homes sold at 100% of list price on average with a low 26 days on the market. You can click here to see the entire 11-page report.

                                       Median Sales Price              Average Sales Price

                                  January-December 2018           January-December 2018

Black Forest                             $531,250                              $600,437                        

Briargate                                   $405,000                              $413,274            

Central                                      $250,000                              $278,776

East                                           $265,000                              $276,110

Fountain Valley:                       $271,950                              $273,520  

Manitou Springs:                     $376,125                              $390,965

Marksheffel:                             $325,000                             $336,399

Northeast:                                $300,000                              $323,144

Northgate:                                $460,000                              $498,800            

Northwest:                                $406,000                             $438,254            

Old Colorado City:                   $303,500                             $324,663           

Powers:                                    $297,250                              $300,677

Southeast:                                $230,000                             $232,785

Southwest:                               $360,000                             $438,458

Tri-Lakes:                                 $510,000                              $545,107

West:                                        $300,000                              $392,357

*Statistics provided by the Pikes Peak REALTORS Services Corp,or its PPMLS.

 

FIRST-TIME BUYERS GETTING HELP FROM FAMILIES

The Wall Street Journal, 1.5.19

Rising home prices are sending first-time buyers to their parents or family members for help with mortgage down payments.  In the 12-month period through September 2018, more than 26% of mortgage borrowers who used FHA insured loans got some assistance from a relative to make the down payment, up from 22% in 2011.

The FHA, an arm of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, insures lenders against losses on the sometimes riskier loans they make.  These are usually first-time buyers or those with weaker credit profiles who would have a harder time getting a conventional loan.

FHA buyers can pay as little as 3.5% upfront vs. the conventional down payment requirements of up to 20%. 

With home prices rising along with interest rates, buying a home is more expensive than in recent years.  Leading up to the mortgage crisis, many sellers provided down payment assistance to buyers to help close deals.  This created even more problems when the market crashed and these practices have since been prohibited.

Industry executives say that help from a family member doesn’t pose the same risk as getting help from a seller because family assistance has a “higher moral bearing on people when things turn tough in the housing market”, according to Sanjiv Das, CEO of Caliber Home Loans, something that bears out in the data that the FHA has tracked since 2011.  

This is a great time to buy before interest rates go up again and first-time buyers will likely need all the help they can get. If you are in a position to help a family member invest in their future, you may want to consider helping them with their down payment.  This can help start them on their way to future financial success.

Be sure to have them contact me when they are ready to look for their starter home so that I can also assist them.  My experience in dealing with first-time buyers can be another invaluable step to insuring a brighter future for them and their family.

 

U.S. ECONOMIC AND HOUSING OUTLOOK FOR 2019

Corelogic.com, 12.5.18

Here are some predictions from Frank Norhaft, Chief Economist for Corelogic.

Economic growth only needs to last seven more months to set the record for the longest expansion in U.S. history, based on business cycle dates going back more then 160 years!  

Corelogic anticipates economic growth will be about 2.4 percent during 2019, a bit slower than the 3.1 percent expected for 2018, but good enough to push the unemployment rates to about 3.4 percent.  That would mark the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years.

That good news leads to the next projection for 2019: higher interest rates.  The Fed will continue to keep an eye on inflation while pursuing its goal of normalizing the level of interest rates. Long term yields should rise as well, nudging the 30-year fixed mortgage rates up to an average of about 5.25 percent by next December, the highest in a decade.

Higher interest rates will affect housing and mortgage market activity.  New listings will be kept relatively low due to those who currently have low rate mortgages and decide to stay in their homes rather than sell.  

Buyer demand may also slow due to the larger monthly payments than accompany higher interest rates.  Corelogic forecasts price growth to slow by 1 percentage point over the next 12 months.

 

HARRY'S NEW YEAR GREETING

by Harry Salzman

January 2, 2019

 

HARRY’S NEW YEAR GREETING

 

                                                                                

 

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Harry A Salzman
ERA Shields / Salzman Real Estate Services
5475 Tech Center Drive, Suite 300
Colorado Springs CO 80919
719-593-1000 or Toll Free: 800-677-MOVE(6683)
Cell: 719-231-1285
Fax: 719-548-9357

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